2015 Breakdowns: Third Base
Before launching into the underrated third basemen, a couple of disclaimers. First, this column will completely ignore Anthony Rendon, who is considered a second baseman for my purposes. It will also ignore Miguel Cabrera, who is listed as a third baseman on Yahoo but who doesn’t qualify at the position in 20-game leagues. Cabrera might regain third base eligibility at some point if he again shifts over during interleague games, but with he and Victor Martinez both coming off leg surgeries, I don’t think it’s any sort of given.
Also, one more mention for the Rotoworld Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide. I’m currently working on a mixed auction guide to add to the ridiculous amount of content already included. We’re also adding NL-only and AL-only expert mock drafts these next two weeks. Of course, it also has all of the player projections and profiles you could possibly want. And if you do find anything missing, feel free to drop me a line.
Underrated
Nolan Arenado (Rockies): My No. 1 third baseman. I was pretty surprised by that, too, but it wasn’t even all that close between he and Josh Donaldson. Arenado always figured to hit for average in the majors, but the power last season was a really nice surprise. 34 doubles and 18 homers might not seem like such a big deal at first sight, but Arenado reached those marks in just 111 games (a fractured finger cost him six weeks). I don’t really expect him to take another step forward in that department this year, but there’s no reason he can’t hit .300; he struck out just 12.4 percent of the time last season and he has Coors Field to give him a boost. With Michael Cuddyer gone, he figures to slide up a spot in the lineup, and he has a realistic chance at 100 RBI whether Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez stay healthy or not. He’s an absolute steal as the 66th pick in Yahoo leagues.
Chris Davis (Orioles): That 53-homer season from 2013 isn’t exactly ancient history, you know. While I understand the wariness, Davis shouldn’t be lasting 100 picks into Yahoo drafts. Whatever the full story behind his amphetamine suspension, he’s back getting a therapeutic use exemption this year, which should put him in a better state of mind. Last season, he hit 26 homers in 450 at-bats, yet batted just .196. Part of the problem was his struggles in dealing with the shift. Hopefully, he’s overcome that now; it’s one thing to lose singles to strategically placed infielders, but he was just getting himself out too often. I have Davis hitting .242, which is enough to make him my No. 4 third baseman and No. 56 player overall. I don’t think I’m being overly generous, either: he hit .270 in 2012 and .286 in 2013, and while Davis has been around a while, this will just be his age-29 season.
Manny Machado (Orioles): Moving right along to Baltimore’s actual third baseman, Machado has seen his stock take a big hit because of his season-ending knee injuries, one to each leg. After missing April last year, he treaded water for two months before really turning it on in his last 36 games (.347/.387/.569, 8 HR in 144 AB). At least last August’s knee injury wasn’t as severe, and he’s set to have a normal spring this time around. Machado will remain prone to knee problems, but he’s still one of the biggest talents to enter the league in the last decade, and it’s worth taking a shot on him with the way he’s falling in drafts. It’s not much of a reach to imagine a .300-25 HR season if he starts 150 games. Right now, he’s the 13th third baseman off the board in Yahoo leagues.
Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals): Zimmerman is 15th, getting taken an average of 139 picks into drafts. That seems like really good value for a guy who has hit .275 in seven straight years and who has been good for 25 homers every time he’s stayed healthy. Of course, the injury bug has gotten Zimmerman several times, but at least he’ll get to ease up on his surgically repaired shoulder now that he’s going to be a full-time first baseman in Washington. He could also get about as many RBI opportunities as anyone in the league, depending on how the Nationals decide to arrange their lineup (my guess is that he’ll hit fifth behind Rendon, Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper).
Lonnie Chisenhall (Indians), Nick Castellanos (Tigers), Pedro Alvarez (Pirates), Chase Headley (Yankees): I’m quite fond of the depth at third base this year, which is why I’ve typically been ending up from someone in this class in my DH spot in mixed drafts. Chisenhall and Castellanos both project as .270-.280 hitters with 18-20 homers. Alvarez is someone I was very down on a year ago, but with much less hype and a surprisingly improved strikeout rate, he’s pretty intriguing now. Even as a platoon guy, he could threaten 30 homers, and sitting against lefties will help his average. Headley probably won’t hit for average, but he can slug 20 homers and he’s the Yankees’ best option in the two hole, which should lead to fine run and RBI numbers.
Overrated
Adrian Beltre (Rangers): Beltre has been on an incredible run in his 30s -- his average line from the last five years is .316-29-96 -- but last year’s power decline could be a sign of things to come; he went from 30 homers in 2013 to 19 last year. His isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) has gone from .265 in 2011 to .240 to .193 to .168. I’m not projecting a major decline -- I have him at .295-23-93 -- but I just think there’s way too much value at third base to be using a second- or third-round pick on him.
Todd Frazier (Reds): Last year was sort of the perfect storm season for Frazier; not only did he hit at the top level of his ability, but he did something absolutely no one saw coming when he stole 20 bases. Frazier wasn’t some youngster bursting on to the scene, though; he’s a couple of months older than Davis and just a year younger than Zimmerman. I think Frazier is probably more of a .250 hitter going forward, and while I think 25 homers and 90 RBI is realistic, I wouldn’t expect him to attempt 28 steals again. Stay away.
Kyle Seager (Mariners): I am a Seager fan. I’m projecting him to post career highs in average (.276 vs. last year’s .268) and OPS (.812 vs. last year’s .788). Still, as a fantasy third baseman, I’m not recommending him. The Mariners offense isn’t nearly as decrepit as it once was, but I still don’t see Seager putting up very good run and RBI totals batting fifth behind Nelson Cruz and ahead of Logan Morrison and Mike Zunino. That’s really what my ranking comes down to. If Seager were hitting fourth for the Rangers or Orioles, he’d be my No. 4 third baseman. As the No. 5 hitter for the Mariners, I place him 10th.
Kris Bryant (Cubs): Bryant has superstar written all over him, but for this year and this year alone, I can’t see paying a premium price for him. My projection calls for him to arrive in early May and hit .250 with about 20 homers over the remainder of the season. That should be enough to give him modest value in mixed leagues, but I’m skeptical that he’ll show up and immediately become a top-10 third baseman. Right now, he’s being drafted in the same range as Machado and Zimmerman, and I don’t think it’s worth waiting for him if the price tag is that significant. I do believe he’ll be a top-five third baseman as soon as 2016.
Sleepers
Maikel Franco (Phillies): Franco hit just .257/.299/.428 in Triple-A last year, so it’s not like he’s banging down the door. Still, his emergence would be great news for a Phillies lineup in dire need of young blood. Most likely, he’s going to be the team’s long-term first baseman. However, he could be broken in at third this year if the Phillies are willing to stick Cody Asche in left field. I think we’ll see him sometime in June, hopefully as a regular for the rest of the year. He doesn’t strike out overly much, so I can see him hitting .260-.270 with decent power as a rookie.
Jake Lamb (Diamondbacks): All signs point to Yasmany Tomas opening the season at third for Arizona, but I believe they’d be better off developing him in left and going with Lamb at third. Lamb was the team’s breakthrough prospect last year, hitting .318/.399/.551 in Double-A and then going 9-for-18 with five extra-base hits in a quick Triple-A stop. He didn’t do anything more than hold his own in 37 games for the Diamondbacks, hitting .230/.263/.373, but that still wasn’t bad for a 23-year-old who wasn’t expected to see any major league time. He could be an average regular this year if given the opportunity.
Joey Gallo (Rangers): One of the most interesting prospects to come around in a long time, Gallo hit 42 homers, struck out 179 times and walked 87 times in 537 minor league plate appearances last season. Some wanted to see him in the majors in the second half of last year, but that would have been foolish. The Rangers also won’t be quick to promote him this year, even though they have obvious question marks in left field and at DH. I do expect that we’ll see him at some point during the second half if his minor league numbers continue to resemble last year’s. He’ll probably have big problems hitting for average in the majors initially, but he could be enough of a power threat to give himself some value anyway.
Kelly Johnson (Braves): The last sleeper is on the other side of his career; Johnson took a minor league deal to return to his original organization and he’s no lock to make the Braves out of spring training. Still, he’s a candidate to outplay starting third baseman Chris Johnson, likely starting second baseman Alberto Callaspo and pretty much the entire mess of left-field options the Braves have assembled. Johnson hasn’t hit for average in the majors in five years, but he still has pop and draws some walks. With all of those paths to playing time, he could provide a nice return on a $1 bid in NL-only leagues.
