AAA forecasts a smaller jump in Thanksgiving travel
By Jarrett Renshaw
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The number of motorists on U.S. roadways during the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday is likely to rise only modestly, AAA estimated on Tuesday, suggesting that the recent surge may be weakening as low gas prices become less of a novelty.
The motorists advocacy group said it expected 41.9 million Americans would travel 50 miles or more by car this Thanksgiving holiday, the most since 2007 and a 0.7 percent increase from a year ago.
This year's rise to pre-recession levels would be significantly smaller than last year's 5 percent jump, which came as global oil prices plummeted and drove gasoline to four-year lows.
The average national U.S. gasoline price on Tuesday was $2.14 per gallon, down from $2.88 a year ago, according to AAA.
U.S. demand for gasoline has been stronger than expected in the past year due to both low pump prices and a growing economy. But energy economist Ed Hirs of the University of Houston said low gas prices could only move the needle so much over the long run.
“It has its limits,” Hirs said. “While gasoline prices fell, we are just now seeing airline ticket prices fall. I think we will see people substituting flying for driving, given the competition.”
AAA said it expected air travel to increase by 0.1 percent, with 3.6 million Americans flying to their holiday destinations. That would also be the highest figure since 2007.
Overall, AAA forecasts 46.9 million Americans will journey 50 miles or more from home during the Thanksgiving holiday, a 0.6 percent increase over 46.6 million people last year and an eight-year high.
It marks the seventh consecutive year of growth for Thanksgiving travel.
(Reporting by Jarrett Renshaw; Editing by Lisa Von Ahn)
