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    Ahead of the Bell: Panera Bread

    Associated Press – Wed, Feb 8, 2012

    NEW YORK (AP) — Panera Bread will take its strong momentum from the fourth quarter through the rest of this year and into 2013 if it continues to snap up franchises, Jefferies & Co. said in a research report Wednesday.

    Late Tuesday the bakery-café chain reported that its fiscal fourth-quarter net income climbed 6 percent to $38.6 million, or $1.31 per share, from $36.5 million, or $1.21 per share, a year earlier. Excluding a $5 million legal settlement charge, earnings were $1.42 per share.

    Jefferies analyst Alexander Slagle said that the performance was impressive given that it's traditionally the most difficult quarter of the year for Panera.

    Revenue for the period ended Dec. 27 increased 16 percent to $495.8 million, but fell short of Wall Street's $498.6 million estimate.

    Revenue at company-owned bakery-cafes open at least a year climbed 5.9 percent thanks to higher prices and better traffic. Sales rose 3.2 percent for franchise-run locations and 4.4 percent systemwide.

    That's a key gauge of a restaurant's health because it excludes the volatility of restaurants recently opened or closed.

    Slagle said Panera's first-quarter to date revenue at company-owned bakery-cafes open at least a year is better than expected, up 8.9 percent The analyst credited improving traffic and favorable weather with helping the company's performance.

    Panera also boosted its 2012 earnings outlook to a range of $5.50 to $5.55 per share. This is the second time that the company has raised its forecast. Its prior outlook called for earnings between $5.38 and $5.48.

    The St. Louis company predicts first-quarter earnings between $1.33 and $1.35 per share.

    Analysts expect 2012 earnings of $5.51 per share and first-quarter earnings of $1.28 per share.

    The company's Chief Financial Officer Jeff Kip is leaving the company to take the same position with at IAC/InterActiveCorp., the company said.

    Slagle said that Kip's departure is not that much of a surprise, partly because he had been at Panera for a long time — nine years in total, with six of those as CFO.

    The analyst maintained Panera's "Buy" rating and its $165 price target.

    Shares of Panera Bread co. fell 2 percent, or $3.42, to $156.60 in premarket trading.

     

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