WASHINGTON (AP) — Applications for unemployment benefits have fallen steadily in recent months to nearly a four-year low, and an expected increase in those numbers last week won't change that overall trend.
Economists forecast that weekly applications rose 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 365,000, according to a survey by FactSet. The Labor Department will release the report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.
The steady decline in applications is one of the strongest signs that the job market is healing. Two weeks ago, applications dropped to 358,000, the second-lowest since April 2008. At that time, the U.S. had just entered into recession.
The four-week average of applications fell to 366,250, also the lowest level since late April 2008. The average has fallen nearly 11 percent in the past four months. When applications drop consistently below 375,000, it usually signals that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.
The economy added a net gain of 243,000 jobs in January, the most in nine months. The unemployment rate dropped for the fifth straight month, to 8.3 percent.
The economy has added an average of 201,000 net jobs per month in the past three months.
Faster economic growth is spurring the job growth. The economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the final three months of last year — a full percentage point higher than the previous quarter.
Most economists expect growth will slow in the current quarter, because companies won't need to rebuild their stockpiles of goods as much as they did last winter.
But there are signs that the economy is still expanding at a healthy pace. Factory output got off to a robust start this year, and it ended last year with the fastest growth in five years, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday.
Factories are adding jobs to keep up with the extra demand. Manufacturers added a net gain of 50,000 jobs last month, the most in a year.
Retail sales rebounded last month after a sluggish holiday season. The gain suggests that recent job growth is supporting more consumer spending.
Still, the job market has a long way to go before it fully recovers from the damage of the Great Recession. Nearly 13 million people remain unemployed, and 8.3 percent unemployment is painfully high.
One reason the unemployment rate has fallen for five straight months is that many people have stopped looking for work. The government only counts people as unemployed if they are actively searching for a job.
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