On Thursday Mitt Romney fell below 50 percent likelihood to attain the Republican nomination for the first time since Oct. 3.
The chart shows the likelihood of attaining the nomination for the four leading candidates since Thanksgiving morning. A slight downward trend for Romney turned into a downward slide directly following Sunday's Union Leader endorsement of Newt Gingrich, shown with the purple line:
Gingrich is in increasing control of Iowa, where he is 59.0 percent likely to win to Romney's 16.7 percent likelihood, and South Carolina, where he is 58.4 percent likely to win to Romney's 25.5 percent likelihood.
Florida is the most hotly contested state between the two frontrunners. A recent poll has Gingrich 21 points ahead of Romney, but a single poll is a volatile data source in a primary election. The prediction markets give Gingrich 53 percent to Romney's 40 percent, which is the closest of the early primary contests.
Yet, Romney is still the most likely Republican nominee; heRead More »from Romney falls below 50 percent, Gingrich still charging