Blog Posts by Holly Bailey, Yahoo! News

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This is the second of what will be a regular "Longshots" feature. "Longshots" are The Upshot's longer reports on major issues of the day.

It's a nondescript office building just two blocks from the White House — but in politics, it's ground zero for what many are referring to as the "shadow GOP." On the 12th floor of this New York Avenue office complex, four separate conservative groups are collectively planning to spend at least $70 million to help Republicans win back control of Congress this November.

But the effort isn't limited to 2010. In an operation modeled after the ambitious fundraising, organizing, and research infrastructure that Democrats built up during the George W. Bush years, GOP political strategists are looking to achieve the same goal that their Democratic counterparts did in 2006: They want to win back the White House.

The four groups — American Crossroads, Crossroads GPS, American Action Network and the American Action Forum — are all part of a larger GOP network assembled in recent months to help rebuild the Republican brand. While dozens of former GOP lawmakers and seasoned Republican strategists are involved, the effort  largely springs from the work of two former Bush aides: Ed Gillespie, the former Republican National Committee chairman who later served as White House counselor, and Karl Rove, the man Bush once described as the "architect" of his presidency.

mcmahonpollLinda McMahon is closing in on Richard Blumenthal in Connecticut's Senate race. A new Quinnipiac poll finds Blumenthal, the Democratic nominee, leading his GOP opponent by 10 points — 50 percent to McMahon's 40 percent. That's down from a 17-point lead Blumenthal held in the race just two weeks ago.

Of course, McMahon needs to win the GOP nomination first. Ahead of next Tuesday's primary, McMahon has a 17-point lead over former Rep. Rob Simmons, who said in May that he was quitting the race but never actually did. After suspending his campaign for two months, Simmons began running a TV ad that reminded voters that he's still in the race. Simmons argues that he has more experience than McMahon — but he actually does worse in head-to-head matchups with Blumenthal than she does. According to Quinnipiac, Blumenthal leads Simmons 54 percent to 35 percent among likely voters.

bushandobamaGeorge W. Bush left office nearly two years ago, but he's been front and center on the campaign trail ahead of the 2010 midterms.

In recent weeks, Democrats have framed their push to fend off a GOP takeover of Congress by arguing that a vote for the Republicans this fall essentially means a return to Bush-era policies. "They don't have a single idea that's different from George W. Bush's ideas. Not one," President Obama said during a fundraising swing in Atlanta on Monday.

It's no mystery why Democrats want to make Bush the bogeyman ahead of November. Polls show voters continue to blame him more than Obama for the nation's problems, including the dismal economy. By invoking Bush, Democrats are hoping to stir up the millions of voters who came out to support Obama as an agent of change back in 2008.

But there's a problem with the Democrats' strategy: Voters, so far, aren't buying the argument.

waterworld megResponding to reports of Republican Meg Whitman's record-breaking spending in the California gubernatorial race, the Democratic Governors Association came up with the lowest, most egregious insult it could muster in a press release that might somehow fall into the hands of young innocent children. They compared her spending to Kevin Costner's 1995 postapocalyptic flop "Waterworld."

"Not since 'Waterworld' has $100 million been spent so poorly in California," DGA head Nathan Daschle said in a statement.

OUCH.  Perhaps even more so because Costner — who has repeatedly insisted the film was under-appreciated by, well, everyone — supports Democrats.  According to campaign finance records, Costner contributed to Al Gore and John Kerry, among others. In he final weeks of the '08 campaign, he stumped for Barack Obama in Colorado.

Helpful note for Democrats the next time: Stick to movies starring Kelsey Grammer.

levibristolAnd just like that, it's over. Again. Less than a month after announcing they were back together and engaged, Bristol Palin and Levi Johnston have called it quits for the second time.

"It's over. I broke up with him," Palin says. She tells People Magazine's Sandra Sobieraj Westfall that she dumped her baby daddy the same day they announced their reunion in an US Weekly cover story.

[Last month's shocker: How Levi proposed]

That evening, Johnston broke the news that he may have gotten another girl pregnant, and then subsequently flew to Los Angeles, where he's set to film a music video in which he plays a boyfriend warring with his girlfriend's mother. (Hmmm, where have we heard that before?)

obamaWhen President Obama celebrates his 49th birthday, he won't be surrounded by his wife and daughters, who are on summer vacation. He'll spend the night in Chicago, where on Thursday he'll mark the occasion with "friends" — the kind who are willing to part with $30,000 or so for the chance to see the president presented with a birthday cake.

Obama had originally been scheduled to visit Chicago for a slew of fundraisers Thursday — and now the White House  says the president will arrive in town half a day early and spend the night in his Hyde Park home. On Thursday, he'll hit three separate fundraisers, including an event for Illinois Democratic Senate hopeful Alexi Giannoulias. That night, Obama will attend what the Chicago Sun-Times has described as a birthday dinner in his honor at the home of billionaire real estate mogul Neil Bluhm. But it's not just any party. It's a major fundraiser for the Democratic National Committee. The price of admission: a $30,400 donation to the DNC or its affiliated committees.

[Video: Presidential b-day fun facts]

A Democratic source told The Upshot the Bluhm dinner is not actually being promoted as a "birthday" event, but it coincides with a larger effort by the DNC to use the president's birthday to raise funds and stir up Obama's base of supporters ahead of the 2010 midterms.

SteeleprankIt might be a good idea for Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele to start screening his calls.

Last week, the embattled GOP chairman took a call at his home from someone he thought was a prospective GOP donor and, during the conversation, dismissed the idea that former Sen. Norm Coleman might be after his job. "Norm is an old friend. Norm is not going to challenge me for RNC chairman," Steele said. "If he does, I'll put my record up against anyone who comes after me."

The only thing is: Steele wasn't talking to a donor. He was talking to conservative blogger Evan Gahr, who was pretending to be a donor and who later published the conversation on his site. (He calls himself Washington Gadfly.)

megwhitmanWith three months to go before Election Day, Meg Whitman is super close to breaking Michael Bloomberg's record for a self-funding candidate. According to a report filed Monday, the California Republican has spent $99.7 million on her quest to be the state's next governor—and $91 million of that was Whitman's own money. In 2009, Bloomberg spent more than $109 million of his own cash on his New York City mayoral re-election—a record Whitman seems likely to break well before November.

Between May 23 and June 30—the latest reporting period—Whitman spent nearly $20 million and ended up the month with $10.3 million in the bank. By comparison, Jerry Brown, her Democratic opponent, has spent $633,205 since January and ended up June with $23 million cash on hand. In fairness, some of Whitman's spending was on the GOP primary, which she won on June 9^th. And Brown has yet to spend money on pricey things like statewide TV ad buys—but that's mainly because others are spending for him.