COMMENTARY | She keeps calling him a "one-term president," but if Republicans are to see President Barack Obama actually relegated to four years as president of the U.S., is Michele Bachmann the person to do it? It is a possibility, to be sure, but what do the polls tell us?
According to Gallup, when Rep. Michele Bachmann entered the 2012 presidential race, she not only had relatively high name recognition but also a favorable positivity score. In fact, when she formally declared her candidacy in her home state of Iowa Monday, she had the highest Positive Intensity score of all the GOP candidates being tracked (tied with businessman Herman Cain).
The Minnesota Congresswoman and tea party leader scored a 69 percent on name recognition and 24 on positive intensity. By comparison, GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney's name recognition is higher (85 percent) his positive intensity score is trending downward (from 19 to 15 percent in the last two weeks).
In a Des Moines Register poll released this past week, Bachmann is second in the 2012 running only to Romney. Iowa is a key state in the primary season: Its caucus, to be held on Feb. 6, is the first in the nation.
But how does Bachmann stack up against President Obama in a head-to-head matchup? Not too well, it would seem. In the list of polls tracked by Real Clear Politics, four polls have been conducted that include Bachmann in head-to-head contests with Obama.
She did best in ABC News/Washington Post poll at the beginning of June, where she only trailed Obama by 11 percentage points. Her worst showing was in a Rasmussen reports survey at the beginning of May where she lost to Obama by 22 points. (Romney seems to do best in polls of head-to-head competition with Obama, sometimes besting him.)
Still, her stock seems to have gone up since appearing in the first Republican Presidential Debate in New Hampshire, where she stole the show with quick one liners and announcing that she had applied to run for president, not to mention trumping all of her fellow candidates at the event in the number of children raised in her household (Bachmann has five, but she helped raise 23 foster children). A more recent CBS News/New York Times poll shows her neck-and-neck with Mitt Romney in generating enthusiasm among Republican voters. Although the overall Republican electorate seems dissatisfied with the overall field of choices for 2012 (and overwhelming 67 percent), Bachmann and Romney garner the most support (7 percent each).
Does this mean that Michele Bachmann could win the GOP nomination but still lose in the general election to the incumbent President? Not necessarily. The general election is still 16 months in the future, with debates, speeches, interviews, caucuses, and primaries to come. If Bachmann can maintain her momentum and do well in the first few primaries, well enough to be seen as a true contender, then she has a relatively good shot (as does any candidate that can make a strong showing in the first several caucuses and primaries) at gaining the GOP nomination.
As for defeating President Obama in the national election, it appears that, as things now stand, she would be unable to do so. However, given the vicissitudes and vagaries of politics, the poll numbers at present could alter considerably by the 2012 November election date. Whether they will alter enough in the Tea Party leader's favor remains to be seen.
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