COMMENTARY | Political campaigns are all about image, presence, presentation, and momentum. They can literally turn in an instant from a slow-rolling or fading vehicle to one of robust momentum that makes a candidate a challenger or even the leader going into an election. It is why so many politicians stay in an election cycle for so long, hoping that their poor polling numbers will turn around on something said or done or on newfound information (regardless if whatever alters the momentum reflects on the candidate or on an opponent).
Rep. Michele Bachmann already had been the recipient of a transient boost in popularity due to a good showing at the first national Republican debate in New Hampshire in June. But the mouth that presented an assertive, reasonable candidate in New Hampshire was known for saying things that often kept the Minnesota congresswoman on the defensive. And so it would be three months later, when looking for momentum again, Bachmann would talk her way toward a momentum bounce on the back of Texas governor Rick Perry's 2007 vaccine scandal, only to just as quickly say something that might have ended her chances at becoming president for good.
A Rasmussen Reports poll released four days after Bachmann's winning performance at the CNN/Tea Party Express Republican presidential Debate in Tampa, where the Tea Party Caucus leader called out poll frontrunner Rick Perry on his questionable executive order that required Texas girls as young as 11 or 12 years of age to be inoculated with the vaccine for HPV (Human papillomavirus) and that he only did it for political payback (his former chief of staff was a lobbyist for the vaccine manufacturer), indicated that Rep. Bachmann may actually be fading. Where once she trailed President Obama in a head-to-head match-up by a mere 4 percentage points, she had slipped to a 13-point deficit. It is doubtful that the numbers are reflective of what she said at the debate (the poll was conducted on September 12-13; the debate occurred on September 12), but possibly could be because of what she said afterward.
In an interview with NBC's "Today" show the following morning, Bachmann said that the vaccine order was "immoral," but she then told a story of meeting a woman after the debate. "She told me," Bachmann said, "that her little daughter took that vaccine, that injection, and she suffered from mental retardation thereafter."
She then added, "This is the very real concern, and people have to draw their own conclusions."
And they apparently drew a negative conclusion, especially after the firestorm her words created. Every medically oriented organization from the American Medical Association to the Center for Disease Control began issuing statements that there was no evidence to support Bachmann's (or the anonymous mother's) story that the HPV vaccine (marketed by Merck under the name of Gardisil) caused any mentally debilitating effects and certainly had not caused mental retardation in a vaccinated young girl.
Bachmann faced a tremendous hurdle going into the CNN/Tea Party Debate. Her national poll numbers had sagged, dropping the one-time contender (with the margin of error of the lead in many national polls) to third, fourth, or even fifth place in the GOP presidential preference polls. She had also crippled her chances of gaining the Republican nomination in the important early primary-holding southern state of Florida by shooting her campaign in the foot with comments of her position on drilling for oil and natural gas "anywhere in the U. S.," which she repeatedly said should include the Everglades. Her words set off a backlash of bipartisan condemnation at the mere thought of allowing drilling in a protected preserve that provided the main reservoir for drinking water for over 7 million people.
Already crippled going into the Tampa debate, Bachmann might have rejuvenated her campaign had she not attempted to give it an extra sensationalized boost with her unsubstantiated story. In fact, just a few days shy of a second Florida debate in Orlando, the congresswoman may have nearly killed her campaign simply by saying just a little too much. The Rasmussen Reports poll may just be the beginning of even more bad news for the tea party leader.
One thing is certain: With the vaccine story, Rep. Michele Bachmann certainly retarded any progress toward a comeback that she might have generated at the CNN/Tea Party Express debate.
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