COMMENTARY | GOP presidential candidate Michele Bachmann said Sunday and voiced the opinion that tea party conservatives would soon "come home" to her candidacy. Her comments on CNN's "State of the Union" come in the wake of Georgia businessman Herman Cain's suspension of his campaign. Cain was a favorite among tea party members and Bachmann believes that many of his supporters will shift to following her campaign because of like views. But what about Rep. Ron Paul and Gov. Rick Perry of Texas? Both tea party favorites, won't Cain's voluntary suspension boost their respective presidential campaigns as well?
"One thing we've seen a lot of is Herman Cain supporters have been calling our office and they've been coming over to our side," Bachmann told Candy Crowley on "State of the Union. "Part of that is because people see that I'm the tea party candidate in the race and they saw Herman Cain as an outsider and I think they see that my voice would be the one that would be most reflective of his."
Cain's rise in the national polls, however, do not seem to be reflective of Bachmann's concomitant drop. Nor has his recent decline in the national presidential preference polls seemed to spill over into support for Bachmann. But perhaps Bachmann was referring to the single-digit Cain supporters that were and remain his core of support. And that supportive core group kept him in contention with Ron Paul in winning straw polls throughout the U. S.
Paul, however, remains at around 10 percent in the polls, seemingly unable to gain or lose traction in the GOP presidential nomination race.
But it was Rick Perry that looked to have gained the most from the Bachmann camp when he entered the race. Prior to his entry, the Minnesota congresswoman had been battling Mitt Romney for the frontrunner position, but Perry's entrance just as she won the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa seemed to draw most of her supporters into his camp. However, his decline in the polls after several poor presidential debate performances has not seen a reciprocal rise in Bachmann's poll scores.
And being the chair of the Tea Party Caucus in Congress hasn't appeared to have been of benefit to Bachmann, either. Yet, she holds out hope that she will gain from her conservative record.
"As tea partiers see where the candidates stand on the issues, they're going to come home and I think on January 3, a lot will come home."
Jan. 3 is the first of the primary and caucus contests, the Iowa Caucus.
But is the hope of tea partiers "coming home" realistic?
According to a Gallup poll in August, Rick Perry was the favorite of most who considered themselves tea party Republicans. A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released in November indicated that Perry was running just a little ahead of Bachamann among tea party supporters but both were in the single digits. Cain had 21 percent of the tea party support, second to Newt Gingrich's 31 percent. Ron Paul scored two points higher at 9 percent than did Perry and six points higher than Bachmann.
Paul has also said Cain supporters have been drawn to his candidacy but Bachmann contends she is more matched ideologically to Cain.
Even if Bachmann were to gain all the tea party supporters that backed Cain and a few of the nonattached tea partiers as well, what would it gain her?
Not much, according to a recent Pew Research study. Support for the tea party has fallen in the past year, especially since the tea party-led gridlock in Congress that nearly saw a government shutdown in August. The survey found that only 20 percent of the general public now support the tea party.
Bachmann hasn't polled above 6 percent in a national poll since September.
It does not look as though it will matter much if tea party supporters -- of Herman Cain or anyone else -- "come home" to Bachmann's camp for the upcoming Iowa Caucus. She needs -- as do other tea party favorites -- the support of far more among the Republican Party electorate. And given that Bachmann never polled higher than 19 percent (Rasmussen Reports, June 16) in the national presidential preference polls, it remains doubtful that she could ever muster the backing needed to win the GOP nomination.
And if the tea partiers don't "come home" to Bachmann? Will she then go home herself?
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