Bank of Ghana committee likely to hold policy rate: Reuters poll

A man holds Ghana's cedi notes in Accra July 3, 2007. REUTERS/Luc Gnago·Reuters· (Reuters)

ACCRA (Reuters) - Bank of Ghana's rate setting committee will keep its policy rate at 19.0 percent this week on an expected foreign exchange liquidity boost, despite inflation surging above target, a Reuters poll showed on Monday. Twelve out of 14 economists polled about Wednesday's rate announcement expect the bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to hold the rate as recent Eurobond and cocoa loan proceeds hit the West African economy. But with consumer inflation currently at 15.9 percent, above the government's comfort zone of 13 percent plus or minus two percent, two economists expected a further 100-basis-point hike in November. Ghana on Thursday raised $1 billion from a third Eurobond sale to finance the government's budget. It also signed a syndicated loan of $1.7 billion from international banks for the purchases of cocoa in the 2014/15 crop year. Analysts believe the inflows would provide additional foreign exchange liquidity to shore up the local cedi currency's nascent stability after it slumped nearly 40 percent in the first half of the year. "Following the recent retracement in the Ghana cedi, market optimism over the recent Eurobond and proceeds from the Cocobod syndication, there is less immediate pressure on the Bank of Ghana to tighten rates," Razia Khan, head of Africa global research at Standard Chartered Bank said. The bank had held the rate at 18 percent from February until July when it hiked it to 19 percent. "That said, we do not think we are at the top of the cycle yet. We expect a pause now, and a hike of 100 bps in November, taking the prime rate to 20 percent," Khan added. The country, which has a record of political stability and sustained strong economic growth, is currently battling a stubbornly high budget deficit, escalating inflation and widening current account imbalance. Economist Sampson Akligoh also predicted a rate hold to reflect the inflationary pressures and the stability of the cedi. "I think the balance of risk in the economy supports a rate decision within the band of 19-19.5 percent, which shows a steady rate decision or a marginal increase to continue a signal of monetary tightening," Akligoh said. President John Mahama's economic management team, led by veteran finance minister Kwesi Botchwey, is set to begin talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday for a possible bailout to fix the fiscal challenges.

Advertisement