A study published in the online journal Science has found that H5N1, more commonly known as bird flu, might be far less deadly than previously thought, according to a report by Reuters. The research contradicts earlier estimates by the World Health Organization.
What does WHO say about bird flu's fatality rate?
The World Health Organization has stated the fatality rate for those who contract the disease might be as high as 60 percent. WHO used reported cases of bird flu to estimate its fatality risk. There have been 586 confirmed cases of H5N1, and 346 have died. WHO then calculated a 59 percent fatality rate.
What does the study say about H5N1's fatality rate?
The lead researcher, Peter Palese, has said he believes the WHO calculated fatality rate estimates based on too few cases to be accurate. Based on the research conducted by him and his team at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, the study would seem to indicate the risk of dying from bird flu is only about 1 percent, according to the Los Angeles Times.
Why such a large difference in estimates?
Palese and his team looked at data from blood samples taken from 12,677 people in Asia. Of the people tested, approximately 1 percent to 2 percent had evidence of infection by H5N1. Yet most of those who tested positive for infection had not gone on to develop the disease at all. And among those 1 percent to 2 percent who had gone on to develop bird flu, none died.
CNN reported the study's co-author Taia Wang said the data she and the rest of the team used show a person's risk of developing bird flu, much less dying of it, is much lower than WHO's preliminary estimates. She claims the 586 cases of bird flu the WHO used for its estimates represent only a fraction of the number of people who have had the disease and many people who had only mild infections from the disease were not properly diagnosed and counted.
How has the WHO responded to the research?
The WHO has reiterated it believes its research to be correct. Time reported the organization has maintained the rate of fatality among those with H5N1 is 30 percent to 60 percent. Critics have also charged the methodology of the new study is faulty and the rate of infection used to calculate risks in the study was too high.
Vanessa Evans is a musician and freelance writer based in Michigan, with a lifelong interest in health and nutrition issues.
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