Atlanta weather | Does mild weather spell summer trouble in South?
How about this weather. Sound familiar?
If you live in Atlanta or perhaps the Deep South, or heck, even the United States of America, you've been treated to an amazing few months weather-wise. And, of course, many of us are wondering: When will this weather hammer drop?
The AP today confirms record-shattering warmth across the country. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that temperatures in the "lower 48 states were 8.6 degrees (4.8 degrees Celsius) above normal for March and 6 degrees (3.3 degrees Celsius) higher than average for the first three months of the year," according to the AP.
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In Atlanta, the nice weather dates back to October, where the already pleasant fall merged into winter months that all recorded above-normal temperatures, according to NOAA data in Peachtree City.
This weather, however, has no bearing on the summer forecast, according to Lans Rothfusz, meteorologist in charge with the National Weather Service in Peachtree City.
"It's very hard to make a correlation," he said. "It's not a foregone conclusion."
In other words, there's no such thing as weather karma or weather payback. If you did believe in that, you might decide that any number of previous Atlanta weather events (see: crazy 2008 floods, 2008 tornado through downtown, 2011 ice storm that stopped the city for a week) paid for this winter in advance.
Rothfusz says odd weather patterns happen all the time, but aside from patterns such as La Nina (which played a role in the warmer winter) and global warming (which points to gradually increasing temperatures), one season does not predict another.
"There's very little skill in forecasting that," he said.
Instead, as Rothfusz puts it mathematically, it's a regression to the mean, or the law of averages.
Speaking of which ... Rothfusz happens to have a long-term forecast for this summer. He says of the three possibilities -- cooler, same or hotter -- the best chance is for a hotter than normal summer this year.
What was that about weather karma?
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FILE PHOTO -- In this March 25, 2012, file photo a couple enjoy a sunny afternoon against the backdrop of the Midtown skyline from Piedmont Park in Atlanta. The lower 48 states were 8.6 degrees above normal for March and 6 degrees higher than average for the first three months of the year, according to calculations by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, with both March and the first three months of the year far exceeding the country's old records.(AP Photo/David Goldman)
