On Super Tuesday, the Signal got 9 out of 10 election predictions correct, following up on an Oscar night where we got 3 of 4 award picks right. Not bad, but we really wish we didn't have those two annoying blemishes, right?
In fact, we're delighted! When the markets are functioning properly, we expect to get a certain percentage wrong every time. (The exact amount depends on how certain the probabilities are for each election on a given day; on Oscar and election nights we actutally expected to get about one wrong each.) If we had swept all 14 predictions, it would have meant our confidence was too low, or what statisticians call "miscalibrated." It sounds strange, but it's actually possible to get too many predictions right.
Think of it like rolling a six-sided Monopoly die and predicting the odds that you'll roll a one, two, three, four or five. On any given roll, you can say with high confidence—83 percent—that you will succeed. But do it 100 times, and you would expect to roll a six about 17 times. If you got your one-through-five all 100 times, there's probably something wrong with your dice.




