Blog Posts by Holly Bailey

Obama drops his Blackberry outside Air Force One (Charles Dharapak/AP)

Political pollsters have been under pressure to make sure their samples include Americans who rely solely on cell phones—and the latest NBC News/Marist polls of Florida, Ohio and Virginia exhibit why.

As NBC's First Read flags, Romney narrowly pulls ahead in Florida among voters who were polled over landlines—48 percent to 45 percent. But among cell phone respondents only, Obama has a major lead: 57 percent to 34 percent.

In Virginia, the results are similar: Romney leads by 1 point among voters polled over landlines: 47 percent to 46 percent. Meanwhile, Obama has the advantage with cell phone respondents: 54 percent to 36 percent.

In Ohio, Obama does better among both landline respondents--44 percent to Romney's 41 percent--and cell phone users--47 percent to Romney's 37 percent.

(Kristoffer Tripplaar-Pool/Getty Images)President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney in Florida, Ohio and Virginia, according to new polls of the key 2012 swing states, although Obama's advantage has narrowed in recent months.

Obama leads Romney 48 percent to 44 percent in both Florida and Virginia, according to three new NBC News/Marist polls. In Ohio, the president has a 6-point advantage over Romney, leading his Republican rival 48 percent to 42 percent among registered voters in the state. (The polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.)

Despite the good news, there are signs of danger for the Obama campaign. In March, the same polls found Obama with a 12-point lead over Romney in Ohio and a 17-point lead in Virginia. In January, the poll had Obama besting Romney by 8 points in Florida.

Mitt Romney is out with his second TV ad of the general election, a spot that continues the theme of what he would do on "day one" of his presidency.

Romney's first ad, released last Friday, focused on the presumptive Republican nominee's pledges to approve the Keystone pipeline, to repeal President Barack Obama's health care law and to make new tax cuts. His second spot includes promises of deficit reduction, tougher trade rules with China and a "repeal of job-killing regulations."

"Day one, President Romney announces deficit reductions, ending the Obama era of big government, helping secure our kids' futures," a narrator says, as images of Romney touring manufacturing companies and meeting with voters accompany footage of children playing. "That's what a Romney presidency will be like."

Mitt Romney says he welcomes scrutiny of his business record at Bain Capital, but insists the upcoming election is more about the state of the economy and whether President Obama has made things "better" for the American people.

In an interview with Time Magazine's Mark Halperin, Romney defended his assertion that his tenure at Bain would help him to create jobs as president, insisting his time in private business gave him a unique "understanding of how America works." Obama disputed that claim on Monday, saying that a president's job "is not simply to maximize profits."

"The fact is that I spent 25 years in the private sector. And that obviously teaches you something that you don't learn if you haven't spent any time in the private sector … You learn through life's experience," Romney said, in his first public response to Obama's criticism. "The president's experience has been exclusively in politics and as a community organizer. Both of those are fine areas of endeavor, but right now we have an economy in trouble, and someone who spent their career in the economy is more suited to help fix the economy than someone who spent his life in politics and as a community organizer."

Asked if he "welcomes" scrutiny of his time at Bain, Romney replied, "Well, of course." But, he quickly added, that he "also like to focus" on Obama's record.

"What is it that he's done as the president of the United States over the last four years?" Romney said. "The American people are interested in, not so much in the history of where I was at Bain Capital, or that I have understanding of the private sector, but instead, has the president made things better for the American people? Are they better off than they were four years ago? Has he established the revitalization he promised he would bring to us?"

Mitt Romney (Mary Altaffer/AP)

Mitt Romney has taken a 6-point lead over President Barack Obama in the battleground state of Florida.

A new Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday found Romney now besting Obama 47 percent to 41 percent among likely Florida voters. That's a shift from earlier this month, when a Quinnipiac poll found Romney and Obama statistically tied in the state. In March, Obama led Romney 49 to 42 percent in the Sunshine State.

If Romney were to add Florida Sen. Marco Rubio to the ticket, the presumptive Republican nominee would expand his lead in the state only slightly, according to Quinnipiac. Forty-nine percent of Florida voters say they'd choose a Romney/Rubio ticket versus 41 percent who say they'd vote for Obama and Vice President Joe Biden. (The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.)

Mitt Romney's campaign is out with a new video suggesting President Barack Obama is trying to deflect attention away from his economic record by attacking Romney's history at Bain Capital.

The minute-long video, titled "Stories From the Obama Economy," kicks off with footage of Obama's comments at a press conference in Chicago Monday suggesting his re-election campaign's focus on Bain is not a "distraction," but rather "what this campaign is going to be about."

As ominous music cues up, a message flashes on the screen: "No, Mr. President, it's about this..."

From there, the video flashes to a split screen of voters talking about struggles under the Obama economy.

"We've seen layoffs, cutbacks," a woman says on one side of the screen, as the other side shows a man silent, a pained look on his face.

Mitt Romney (Mary Altaffer/AP)As Democrats intensify their attacks over Mitt Romney's tenure at Bain Capital, a new poll finds the public divided over whether his history as a venture capitalist hurts or helps the presumptive Republican nominee.

A new ABC News/Washington Post survey released Tuesday found 54 percent of those surveyed say Romney's role in buying and restructuring companies is "not a major factor" in their vote this year. Among those who do say it is a factor, voters are split: 21 percent say it is a "major reason to support" Romney, while 21 percent say it is a "major reason to oppose" him.

But beneath those numbers lies a bigger issue for Romney. As the Post's Jon Cohen and Dan Balz note in their analysis of the poll, 56 percent of those surveyed say an economic system favoring the wealthy is a bigger problem than regulatory overreach by the government. Just 34 percent say government constraints on free markets are a major concern—a finding that could eat away at one of Romney's key arguments on

Mitt Romney is out with his first campaign ad of the general election, a spot detailing what "day one" of his potential presidency would look like.

Romney told reporters Thursday his first ad would be "positive," but the 30-second spot takes plenty of digs at President Barack Obama.

Among other things, Romney vows to "immediately" approve the Keystone pipeline, "creating thousands of jobs that Obama blocked." The ad also says Romney will introduce tax cuts and reforms "that reward job creators, not punish them." And as the candidate mentions in virtually every stump speech, the spot says Romney will issue an order to "begin replacing Obamacare with common-sense health care reform."