Blog Posts by Holly Bailey, Yahoo! News

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Could Democrats be in danger of losing majority control of the Senate in November? A new analysis from FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver suggests that the GOP is gaining momentum heading into the midterm elections, putting at least six or seven Democratic Senate seats at serious risk.

"The Democrats now have an approximately 20 percent chance of losing 10 or more seats in the Senate, according to the model, which would cost them control of the chamber unless Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida, who is running for the Senate as an independent, both wins his race and decides to caucus with them," Silver writes in the New York Times.

That analysis directly contradicts what some Republican leaders have said about the November races. All summer, Sen. John Cornyn, head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has been downplaying the GOP's chance at taking the majority this fall. Just last week, Cornyn told "Fox News Sunday" that the GOP probably won't make the gains it needs until 2012. "If everything goes our way, I can see a pathway there," Cornyn allowed. "Realistically, I think it'll be a two-cycle effort."

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Sarah Palin was one of the big winners in Tuesday night's primaries, as all five of the candidates she endorsed either won or, in the case of Joe Miller in Alaska's Senate GOP primary, appeared on the verge of winning.

But even if she is proving influential in the 2010 GOP primaries, Palin still has a long way to go if she decides to jump into the 2012 presidential race — especially in the early primary state of Iowa.

A recent Concordia Group/Iowa Republican poll of likely GOP voters in the state found Palin in fourth place behind Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. According to the poll, Palin attracted just 11 percent of the vote — 11 points less than Huckabee, who won the state's caucus in 2008.

Palin's supporters will argue that it's no surprise that she trails Huckabee, who has worked hard to sustain his political profile in the state. But it's the numbers within the poll that should give the former Alaska governor serious pause. As Craig Robertson of the Iowa Republican notes, Palin's unfavorable rating among likely GOP voters in the state is significantly higher than that of any other prospective 2012 nominee.

rubio2Insider versus outsider: That's been the major theme of the 2010 campaign so far, and it was no different as voters in five key states, including Florida and Arizona, headed to the polls in nominating contests 10 weeks before the November midterms. But in the GOP contests that dominated the night, the influence of the tea party movement, which for the past year has fueled so much voter anger — and media coverage — showed some important signs of flagging, particularly as nominees on the right ponder the best way to frame a campaign message to appeal to independent voters in the general election campaign.

In Florida, it came down to a battle of money versus power, as wealthy candidates tried to topple establishment favorites. In the governor's race, it worked, as former health care executive Rick Scott, who portrayed himself as an outsider, running outside the GOP establishment's power structure,  narrowly defeated GOP favorite Bill McCollum, the state's attorney general. But money

rickscottIf there's a lesson in Florida tonight, it's that $26 million can't buy an election, but $50 million can. That's how much Rick Scott spent in his bid to win the state's GOP gubernatorial primary. (The smaller sum was what billionaire Democratic Senate aspirant Jeff Greene spent in his failed nomination bid.) The former hospital executive narrowly defeated state Attorney General Bill McCollum in what was one of the most contentious primaries in the country. The Associated Press called the race for Scott late Tuesday, with more than 90 percent of the state's districts reporting.

McCollum, a former congressman, was backed by most of the GOP establishment, including former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. But Scott, who campaigned as a political outsider, narrowly led in the polls up until this week, when McCollum seemed to make a last-minute resurgence. The race was so nasty that neither Scott or McCollum would commit to endorsing the other in the general election, forcing the Florida GOP to postpone a so-called unity rally scheduled for Wednesday.

The GOP turmoil could be good news for Democrats. Alex Sink, the state's chief financial officer, easily won the party's nomination Tuesday, and polls show she's gained a slight lead in the general election as Scott and McCollum have attacked each other. That represents a notable gain since a recent Quinnipiac poll found she's a virtual unknown in the state.

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After weeks of looking as though he might lose the race, Rep. Kendrick Meek soundly defeated financier Jeff Greene in Florida's Democratic Senate primary — a major victory, since Greene spent more than $26 million of his own cash in the race.

With more than half the vote in, Meek was beating Greene by double digits. Greene, who led the polls up until about a week ago, had campaigned as an outsider, but Florida voters ultimately soured on his candidacy after weeks of bad press over his celebrity-studded yacht parties and thin political resumé.

But now Meek now faces an even more difficult challenge: Can he keep Democrats from defecting to Charlie Crist's campaign? All summer, polls have found Meek running a distant third behind Crist, who quit the GOP to run as an independent, and Republican Marco Rubio — in part, because Crist has been pulling significant Democratic support away from Meek.

hasselbeckAs a co-host of ABC's daytime chatfest "The View," Elisabeth Hasselbeck has long been known as the conservative firebrand of the show, willing to butt heads with her fellow co-hosts on issues including taxes and abortion. But Hasselbeck, who campaigned with Sarah Palin in '08, insists that she's been misunderstood, saying in a recent interview that she regards President Barack Obama as an "incredibly cool guy" and parts company with conservative culture warriors on the charged issues of gay marriage and abortion rights. On the latter front, she says she's "torn"; she offers fairly unequivocal support on the controversial question of same-sex unions.

In an interview with Fancast's Adam Buckman, Hasselbeck insists she's not "ultra-ultra-conservative on every issue."  "I actually support gay marriage," she says, an admission that puts her to the left of Obama.

As for abortion, Hasselbeck confirms she believes that life begins at conception but also says she doesn't think the government should tell women what to do with their bodies. "I'm torn there in terms of supporting laws" for or against abortion, she says. "I always say I would rather a change in heart than a law."

Hasselbeck considers herself more of a "federalist" — someone who believes the federal government should leave decisions up to the states — than a "conservative." "Always trying to mandate, mandate, mandate this or that is not the way that I believe the country should be run," she says.

delayThe Justice Department last week ended its six-year investigation of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay and his ties to convicted GOP lobbyist Jack Abramoff. But that doesn't mean DeLay is out of legal hot water.

The hard-charging conservative leader, who had formerly been known as "The Hammer," heads to court today in Texas, where he and two former aides are facing trial on charges they used an elaborate network of political action committees to funnel money illegally  from corporations directly to GOP campaigns in Texas in 2002. Like federal law, Texas campaign rules prohibit direct corporate contributions to candidates. Prosecutors allege DeLay intentionally broke the law by taking nearly $200,000 in corporate donations and giving that money to the Republican National Committee, which then gave it to several Texas legislative candidates.

The RNC has said its contributions to the Texas candidates came from a different account that included only contributions from individual donors. Still, DeLay was indicted on money-laundering charges in 2005 and was forced to give up his GOP leadership post. He resigned from Congress the following year. DeLay hasn't done much since then — aside from his appearance last year on ABC's "Dancing with the Stars." He continues to deny any wrongdoing and has called the investigation politically motivated.

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House Minority Leader John Boehner is calling on President Obama to fire his economic team, including Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and senior economic adviser Larry Summers. He says the administration's efforts to boost the economy have resulted only in further job loss.

"The American people are asking, 'Where are the jobs?,' and all the president's economic team has to offer are promises of 'green shoots' that never seem to grow," Boehner said in a speech to the City Club of Cleveland that he posted on his website. "The worse things get, the more they circle the wagons and defend the indefensible."