Xi'An, China -- There's nothing like a visit to China to get you in touch with your inner Thomas Malthus. The 18th century British scholar is known, centuries after his death, for pessimism about the capacity of the earth and its inhabitants to produce enough food, energy and other resources to sustain the rising population of humans.
The last few centuries, in which rising living standards coincided with population growth, have debunked Malthus. But spend some time in China — and in particular in China's interior — and you'll start to think otherwise.
Shanghai has long been one of the world's large, great cities. To a longtime resident of New York, the amalgamation of skyscrapers is readily comprehensible. Yes, the scale and the pace of growth is impressive, even shocking. But if New York works without overly stressing the planet, so should Shanghai.
The anxiety picks up when you leave the comparatively well-trodden coasts for the interior. Here, you'll find cities that you've likely never heard of, that are as big and sprawling as any in America, and getting larger by leaps and bounds. Like Xi'an, which I visited this week along with a group of journalists.
Xi'an is best known as the location of the astonishing terra cotta warriors. Unearthed in 1974, they lie at the core of the vast burial grounds of Qin Shi Huang, founder of the Qin dynasty and the first emperor of China. (On which more later).
Xi'an today is a huge city (population about eight million and growing) that each year pulls in hundreds of thousands of Chinese from the impoverished countryside. Bumping through the traffic, we passed endless blocks of apartment buildings, office complexes, factories and lower-slung districts destined for development.
When Americans think of industrial parks, we tend to think of a dozen-odd office buildings set along a winding road, or a bunch of low-slung industrial sheds. Here in Xi'an, the parks are themselves the size of cities. We visited the Xi'An National Civil Aerospace Industrial Base (XCAIB), which is in effect a new city a few miles southeast of the ancient city center. Here, office buildings and soaring residential complexes are sprouting from the soil of the 86-square kilometer zone.
Our destination in the afternoon, the Xi'an Hi-Tech Industries Development Zone, was even larger. It took 25 minutes to drive from one section of the zone to the Software Park. Each zone features an imposing headquarters with soaring lobbies, cavernous meeting rooms filled with overstuffed chairs, and immense scale models of the area.
The scale isn't simply a sign of China's rising wealth and self-image. It's planning for the necessary work of moving tens and hundreds of millions still-impoverished peasants from rural villages into areas where they can find work and higher living standards. Ensuring that the majority of its population ultimately benefits from the economy's modernization is the government's overriding goal.
China seeks to impress visitors with size and abundance. But you begin to wonder. Where will all the cement come from? The steel? The water? If the cities continue to expand at their current pace, who will provide all the meat, noodles and vegetables that cause Lazy Susans to buckle? And, above all, where will the energy come from?
China talks a great game when it comes to alternative energy. Every major city has subway systems and extensive public transport. The country's industrial policy encourages energy efficiency. The XCAIB district wants to become a center for LED lighting, and has mandated its use through the zone. At the Hi-Tech Industries Development Zone, we visited an Applied Materials facility, where researchers are figuring out ways to improve the efficiency of solar panels. There are signs and billboards for the solar industry all over the place. (A strange thing, given that, between the clouds, rain, and pollution, you can easily go a week in China without seeing the sun.)
And yet China's impressive, frequently astonishing growth is powered almost exclusively by non-renewable fossil fuels. A note in the brochure for the Xi'An National Civil Aerospace industrial Base says it plans "to build 6 high-temperature coal-fired boilers with total heating supply of 696 MW." (That's enough to power about 70,000 U.S. homes)
In economies like China's, electricity usage rises at about 70-80 percent of the rate of the economy, so if China grows 10 percent, its need for electricity rises 7 to 8 percent. Add in the fact that China retires some dirty coal plants each year, and it needs to add a huge amount of electrical capacity just to keep up with demand. China's electrical capacity is expected to rise about 8.8 percent in 2011 to 1050 gigawatts. And most of that growth will come from coal-fired plants, perhaps the least sustainable form of electricity generation available. Solar power accounts for less than 1 percent of China's electricity generation. Given the pace of growth, it's very difficult for alternative energy like wind and solar power to gain market share in China.
Then there's the traffic — oh lord, the traffic. The process of urbanization in Xi'an is, in some ways, just beginning. And yet at rush hour it can easily take an hour to move six miles through the wide boulevards that are clogged with vehicles. There's not a hybrid or electric vehicle in sight. Yes, oil production continues to grow. But it's difficult to imagine it keeping pace with the rise in car sales, economic activity, and gas-sucking traffic in China.
The beeping and the braking, the chalky air, the new terminal at Xi'an's airport, the blinking lights and the construction cranes that loom like sentries in the mist — all these are signs that China, which essentially sat out the 20th century, is finally standing up. Almost by definition, China's rising living standards will lead to more intensive resource use. As China's 1.3 billion people start to consume like Americans long have, we'd be well advised to figure out how to do more with less — and to read a little Malthus.
Daniel Gross is economics editor at Yahoo! Finance. He's traveling in China this week under the auspices of the China U.S. Exchange Foundation.
Follow him on Twitter @grossdm; email him at grossdaniel11@yahoo.com.
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