GOP’s slow-moving race for 2012 producing a ragtag team

By Jill Lawrence

Mitt Romney's low-key announcement that he's officially exploring a presidential bid is a vivid example of the slow-moving race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. Four years ago at this time, the former Massachusetts governor had been an outright candidate for two months. This year, three weeks before the first Republican debate, the only declared candidate in the 2012 race is a Democrat—President Obama.

Big names—Donald Trump, who's getting traction in the polls, Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich—are making headlines but not taking formal steps toward running. So far there are four Republicans who have formed the exploratory committees that allow candidates to raise money and are a precursor to campaigns: Romney, former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty and two long shots, former Louisiana governor Buddy Roemer and pizza magnate Herman Cain. They are the only ones eligible to participate at this point in the season opener, a May 5 debate in Greenville, S.C., but a spate of decisions this month could change that.

Obama's term has been tumultuous, marked by crisis after crisis: a near-collapse of the economy, persistent unemployment, three wars, a massive record-breaking oil spill, potentially ruinous levels of federal deficits and debt, violent unrest across the Middle East and North Africa, and Japan's earthquake, tsunami and radiation traumas. "It's chaos out there, it really is," says Stuart Rothenberg, publisher of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report.

Republicans have attacked Obama's handling of all of the above, as well as his bank and auto bailouts, his decisions on trials for accused terrorists, and his successful push to increase the federal role in health care and on Wall Street. It's no wonder Obama is starting early to try to recreate the excitement and phenomenal fundraising of 2008; he is likely to need both for what could be a $1 billion campaign.

So why aren't his potential rivals capitalizing on the mayhem? Some are governors tied up with state business. Some might want to postpone their debuts as real targets in a real race. Some, such as Palin and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, are projecting ambivalence. Sharon Dearin of Ames, Iowa, who attended the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition forum last month in Waukee, summed up their dilemma as well as any pundit could. "I doubt that either one of them will run, because for the first time in their lives they're making money," she said.

Romney, at or near the top of national polls and those in the early states of New Hampshire, Nevada and Florida, is viewed by many as the front-runner for the nomination. He has tried to stay out of the fray, except when it comes to Obama. He continually labels the president weak, inexperienced and naïve on foreign policy, and says Obama's made the world more dangerous. He also rips Obama for what he charges are failed liberal economic policies and the resulting "Hoovervilles" of job fairs and unemployment lines.

Romney's strongest suit is the aura of competence he carries from his years as a CEO venture capitalist and his turnaround of the troubled 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City. His major challenge in 2012 may well be the Massachusetts health law that he shepherded and signed, and which served as a model for the new federal law so reviled by conservatives. It is 5 years old this week and Democrats aren't letting anyone forget what they consider Romney's wonderful achievement.

Challenges from the 2008 race, such as unease about his Mormon religion and shifts to conservative positions on social issues such as abortion, could arise again. Romney also may confront revived questions about his years as head of a company that bought and sold other companies, with many people losing their jobs in the process. At least two of Romney's GOP rivals used that against him in 2008—and that was before millions of jobs vanished in the Great Recession.

Pawlenty, the other major contender who has made his ambitions clear, is one of the least known contenders and is working hard to change that. He has written an autobiographical book, gone on a book tour and repeatedly visited important primary-season states. A fiscally conservative governor from a key swing state next door to Iowa, he charges that Obama has given the country "skyrocketing debt, expanded government, and a disastrous healthcare law."

Pawlenty is making a concerted bid for religious conservatives, dropping his g's in speeches about faith and God at values-oriented forums in Iowa and elsewhere, and is a ferocious critic of Obama on foreign policy. He often is described as bland or generic, but that could end up helping him. Being everybody's second choice is a possible path to the nomination. Pawlenty has notably tried to quash some conservatives' preoccupation with Obama's birthplace. "I, for one, do not believe we should be raising that issue," he said recently on MSNBC's Morning Joe. "I think President Obama was born in the United States."

Beyond Romney and Pawlenty, here are 11 other Republicans mulling whether to run:

Michele Bachmann: The Minnesota congresswoman is winning fans on visits to early primary states and says she'll decide by early summer whether to run. Bachmann is an impressive fundraiser ($2.2 million in the first there months of 2011) and gave what many described as an inspirational speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference this year. She grew up in Iowa, the state that kicks off the nomination process. Bachmann also has a law degree, a personal story to rival Palin's (she has five children and cared for 23 teen-aged girls as a foster parent) and an apparent lock on the glamorous Mama Grizzly slot if Palin punts.

However, Bachmann has proven an uneven performer. She defied party elders to deliver her own televised response to Obama's State of the Union address, but technical problems made it look amateurish. She has praised the Founding Fathers for working to end slavery (some of them were slaveholders and slavery continued right up through the Civil War) and placed the opening shots of the American Revolution in New Hampshire instead of Massachusetts. She raised eyebrows in 2008 when she said she was very concerned that Obama and other members of Congress "may have anti-American views" and said the media should investigate them.

Haley Barbour: Barbour, in his second term as governor of Mississippi, plans to make his decision this month. He already has started road-testing attacks on Obama, charging among other things that the president has no energy policy and doesn't understand entrepreneurial capitalism. Barbour also has questioned the war in Afghanistan ("we need to step back") and called for cuts in the defense budget as part of deficit reduction.

Barbour has a top flight network from his days as chairman of the Republican National Committee and the Republican Governors Association. He has been widely praised for how he handled the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, which devastated the Gulf Coast. He would need to distance himself from his past as a Washington lobbyist, and demonstrate he has appeal outside a region the GOP already has nailed down. Barbour stumbled out of the block by seeming insensitive to the civil rights struggles of his hometown (Yazoo City) and region. He has tried to defuse the issue by pushing hard for a civil rights history museum; the legislature approved it this month.

Herman Cain: While he hasn't held office, Cain turned around the failing Godfather's Pizza empire, led the National Restaurant Association, ran for the Senate in Georgia in 2004, and now hosts a radio show in Atlanta. At a recent forum sponsored by the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition in Waukee, he said conservatives must be "the defending fathers" to protect the values and principles of the Founding Fathers, including the rights of the unborn. His message to Obama: "The United States of America is not going to become the United States of Europe, not on our watch." Cain is a compelling speaker who is traveling widely, but still faces long odds.

Mitch Daniels: The balding, diminutive, motorcycle-riding Indiana governor often sounds ambivalent about running, but he has done enough to keep hope simmering among his fans. After declining to attend the CPAC conference for years ("I don't do that sort of thing. I stay in my lane," he said last year), Daniels went this year and created a buzz with a sober dinner speech about the "red menace" of red ink. Last month he was on NBC's "Meet the Press." He'll be back in Washington for a May 4 education speech at the American Enterprise Institute.

Daniels could have problems with some conservatives because he has suggested the parties call a "truce" on social issues while they work on resolving the country's fiscal problems. He also could be haunted by his very low—and very wrong—cost estimate for the Iraq war during his tenure as George W. Bush's budget director, and his association with Bush in general. His advantages include serious policy chops and a solid record as governor of a state that Obama won in an upset in 2008. Daniels has said he'll make a decision no later than May.

Newt Gingrich: The former House speaker scorns Obama as a "spectator in chief" who views the United States as "a normal country like everyplace else in the world," as opposed to "fundamentally exceptional" (his contention). Gingrich has a fertile brain full of ideas, but discipline is not always evident. His first step toward a candidacy (a website to explore whether to explore) came amid a cascade of conflicting statements from various aides. He's had multiple positions on Libya, calling for intervention before Obama intervened and then, after the no-fly zone began, saying he would not have intervened.

Beyond that, Gingrich is on his third wife and has admitted to cheating on his first two. "I was happy to see that Newt Gingrich has staked out a position on the war—a position, or two, or maybe three," Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., said at a recent press dinner. "I don't know. He may have more war positions than he's had wives." Gingrich says he'll decide by May if he'll give up his life of speeches, movie-making and book-writing to suffer the slings and arrows of the campaign trail.

Mike Huckabee: The former Arkansas governor won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, but has not made moves to organize there this year. He has a comfortable life as an author and syndicated radio host with a Fox weekend show, allowing him to build a $3 million house in Florida. Huckabee says he won't make a decision until at least summer and he'll get in only if he thinks he can win. Many polls show him leading the field nationally and in several early primary states, but he's no sure bet for the nomination. Though he was a well-regarded governor, Huckabee's rivals would no doubt seize on taxes he raised for roads and education, and pardon policies that led to the release of a prisoner who later killed four police officers near Seattle.

On his recent book tour, Huckabee ventured into territory that seemed more suited to a radio talker than a serious presidential candidate. He said twice that Obama had been raised in Kenya (he was not), and though he acknowledged that mistake, he maintained that Obama's "story" includes anti-British sentiment and support for the Mau Mau rebellion in Kenya (which happened before Obama was born). Huckabee also took issue with actress Natalie Portman's out-of-wedlock pregnancy, saying it sets a bad example.

Jon Huntsman: There's no stranger development than the former Utah governor's decision to quit his job as ambassador to China and explore a campaign against his boss. As governor, Huntsman relaxed liquor laws in Utah and came out in support of same-sex civil unions. His moderate social views and Mormon religion could hurt him in primaries. He is, however, the rare White House prospect with firsthand foreign policy experience, and the fact that it's with China is a huge plus. Allies have formed a political action committee to prepare for a possible Huntsman campaign after he leaves the federal payroll this month. He's planning to give commencement speeches — and presumably check out the political climate -- in New Hampshire and South Carolina in May. New Hampshire so far is Romney country, and a recent poll showed that Huntsman's home state prefers Romney as well. Obama and his aides, meanwhile, are having mischievous fun showering praise on Huntsman. "I'm sure that him having worked so well with me will be a great asset in any Republican primary," Obama said in January.

Sarah Palin: Like Huckabee, the former Alaska governor is not making moves to organize in Iowa or other early states. She did attend a high-profile conference in India to give a speech about her vision of America, and ended up attacking Obama for "dithering" on Libya right after saying she wouldn't criticize him. Palin's roles as celebrity author, reality TV star and Fox News contributor have not jibed with advice offered by pundits and strategists that she should immerse herself in policy and prove she is serious about being a national leader. Nor has she given many interviews, preferring to communicate via social media. Though Palin still places in the top three or four in polls of the primary field, her national favorability ratings have sunk lower and lower. She came under heavy criticism, including from Republicans, for seeming defensive and using the phrase "blood libel" in a video after the shooting of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords. Palin could be hampered by ethics issues that arose in Alaska (including her attempt to get her ex-brother-in-law fired as a state trooper) and her decision to quit her job as governor 2.5 years into her term.

Buddy Roemer: The former Louisiana governor and former congressman also is a former Democrat. He is running an unlikely, long-odds populist campaign against big money, big corporations, big government, big debt and big "greedy" banks. Roemer is not taking money from political action committees and is limiting other donations to $100. His controversial positions include doing away with oil and ethanol subsidies. "We have to get rid of my little deal and your little deal and put together our deal," he said at the faith and freedom forum last month. Like Gingrich, Roemer is on his third wife. He didn't mention that in Waukee. Instead he told the audience that he is married to "a piano player in the church next door to mine" and called himself "a pro-life traditional values man."

Rick Santorum: The former Pennsylvania senator is a passionate social conservative who calls himself a fighter for "the moral fabric of our country." He made headlines as a senator when he said marriage has always been about men and women -- never about homosexuals or "man on child, man on dog." Last month in Iowa, he recalled fighting "year in, year out" for a ban on "partial-birth" abortions and said the government, through entitlement programs, is "trying to hook you on something like a drug dealer." Santorum is not coming to the race on the wings of victory. In 2006 he lost his seat to Democrat Bob Casey by a substantial 18 points — demonstrating in a key general-election swing state that he lacks broad appeal.

Donald Trump: The real estate magnate and reality show star has carved out the birther niche for himself — an automatic ticket to the fringe. Not only that, but he fumbled it, producing his own "birth certificate" in an unofficial form before coming up with the real thing. Self-aware he is not. Shortly before Rep. Ron Paul won the CPAC straw poll, he told CPAC that Paul has "zero chance of getting elected" president. Brash he is. "I have a reputation for telling it like it is. I'm known for my candor. I've had a lot of great victories. And I may be willing to put that to work," Trump told the CPAC audience. Rothenberg says Trump is "looking for PR" and is "in it for the ego." There is a Draft Trump organization and Trump tied Huckabee for first place in a new CNN poll of Republicans. On the other hand, Trump has taken a job as a Fox contributor. That's the same job Santorum and Gingrich lost when Fox determined they were taking steps toward presidential candidacies."