The Lookout5 things to watch in immigration debate next year
Next year poses a key test for President Obama's immigration strategy. Facing very different legislative priorities from a GOP-run House, the White House won't be able to continue toeing the fine line between ramping up deportations to an all-time high and pushing for comprehensive immigration reform including a path to citizenship.
On Dec. 18, Republican senators joined by five Democrats filibustered the DREAM Act, arguably the least controversial piece of Obama's proposed immigration reform. The bill would have let young immigrants who were brought into the country when they were children become legal residents if they joined college or the military. The DREAM Act would also have lowered the deficit in its first ten years (though its long-term cost was unclear)--and even its fiercest opponents admitted the young activists advocating for its passage had done nothing wrong and seemed hard working and sincere.
But the "no amnesty" argument won out, and it appears likely to be the dominant refrain in the new Congress, which means Obama must be looking for a new plan. With all this uncertainty, it was hard to narrow down the top five trends to look out for in the immigration debate next year. But we persevered, and you can see the results after the jump.
1. The 'Tequila party' and GOP outreach to Latinos
Though the name is unlikely to stick, Latino leaders--including influential Illinois Congressman Luis Gutierrez, who captains immigration efforts for the House Hispanic Caucus--have been floating separatist talk amid the Democrats' failure to deliver on key campaign promises. "We need to decouple the movement for comprehensive immigration reform and justice for immigrants from the legislative process and from the Democratic Party process," Gutierrez said. As some Latinos are pondering this break from Democrats, the GOP may be waiting to snap them up with new outreach organizations formed by Newt Gingrich and Norm Coleman. However, it's still far from clear whether these GOP Latino outreach efforts will spur the party to embrace more aggressive approaches to immigration reform as 2012 approaches.
2. Pushback to ICE's 'Secure Communities' Deportation program
Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) deported a record number of people last fiscal year, in part aided by a new program that scours local jails' fingerprint registries for illegal immigrants. Several counties asked not to be a part of this Secure Communities program, fearing that it would hamper law enforcement's ability to work with the immigrant community. At first, ICE officials told those communities they could opt out, but this fall, the Department of Homeland Security announced that the program was mandatory for everyone.
In January, ICE will have to turn over all internal documents and correspondence dealing with whether Secure Communities was intended to be optional. This disclosure may reveal internal tensions about the program within the agency--and that, in turn, could be a boon for the program's opponents. Immigration advocates hope the documents will help them convince a judge to decide ICE cannot mandate the program.
3. The immigrant rights movement will go local
Now that the DREAM Act appears dead for the next two years, expect the battle over in-state tuition for illegal immigrants and other benefits to go local. The executive director of the anti-illegal immigration Center for Immigration Studies Mark Krikorian told The Washington Post that he thinks the DREAM Act's failure will have a "demoralizing" effect, but students who were advocating for the bill told the paper they want to harness their momentum and keep fighting on the state level. In part, they're inspired by the pro-enforcement crowd's success in passing a strict immigration law in Arizona.
"They're winning by state, they're winning by region," Cyndi Bendezu, a UCLA grad, told the paper. "We have to win smaller victories."
"It looks like we'll be taking the fight for immigrant rights to the states and we'll be looking at a localized strategy," activist Flavia de la Fuente told NPR. "Obviously, we can't fight for a path to citizenship on the state level, but we can fight for access to education, access to public universities, in-state tuition, driver's licenses."
4. Birthright citizenship and mandatory work-place verification
GOP Rep. Steve King of Iowa, a staunch opponent of any legalization efforts, will be the new chair of the House's immigration committee in 2011. Two priorities he's mentioned: passing a law that would revoke birthright citizenship to the babies of illegal immigrants and making the federal E-verify system mandatory for every employer to prevent illegal immigrants from being hired.
5. The court case over Arizona's immigration law
The hardline Arizona law, which greatly expanded local police and sheriff involvement in immigration enforcement is up for a new round of court challenges in the coming year. And the 25 states with lawmakers that are considering an Arizona-style law will be watching closely to see how it holds up in court. A federal judge struck down many of its main provisions as unconstitutional, but Arizona has appealed the decision to a higher jurisdiction, the Ninth U.S. Circuit of Appeals. At a hearing in November, one of the Ninth Circuit judges seemed skeptical of a key part of the Justice Department's argument against the law. Either way the Ninth Circuit decides, the case will most likely be appealed to the Supreme Court.
(A young illegal immigrant UCLA college student cries after the Senate blocks the DREAM Act: AP)
