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    The Lookout

    The end of the Sun Belt boom?

    Vacant new homes in Gilbert, Ariz. AP Photo/Matt YorkFor decades, the story of American migration has been steady movement away from places like New York, Massachusetts and California, and toward the Sun Belt--a development that has helped reshape everything from politics to major league baseball. But the economic downturn may be putting an end to that trend, a new analysis suggests.

    Between 2007 and 2010, Florida lost more people to internal migration than it gained, for the first time since the 1940s. Nevada, too, which had been growing for decades, had a net migration loss of 30,000 in 2009. And Arizona had a net gain of just 5000, way down from 90,000 five years before.

    Meanwhile, New York and California both saw their net losses shrink in 2009 by more than half since 2005.

    The analysis, based on Census Bureau and IRS data, was conducted by the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire.

    What explains the shift? The Sun Belt states, of course, were hit hard by the housing bust that helped trigger the recession and its aftermath. The early aughts housing boom was responsible for much of the growth in places like Clark County, Nev., and Maricopa County, Ariz. in the first place.

    But just as important, migration as a whole, which has been on the wane for three decades, has really tailed off since the downturn began. "When times get really hard, it gets really hard for people to up and move," Kenneth Johnson of the Carsey Institute told the New York Times. "People who might have left New York for North Carolina are staying put."

     
    • George  •  Elmhurst, United States  •  7 mths ago
      I can think of 2 more reasons. One is that more of the older sun belt residents are dying off and two more people who would like to move can't afford it because of the lousy economy.
      • Observer 7 mths ago
        As a sunbelt resident, I live practically alone for 7 months of the year, Ah, when the frost is on the pumpkins, that is the time for the snowbirds arrival. Each year, less and less are coming though
      • damifino 7 mths ago
        I think you are right on the money there.....retirees die and the rest can't afford to retire...
      • TOM 7 mths ago
        this article implies that the economy is one of the reasons that people are staying put, can't you read.
    • AwakeAlertOrientedx3  •  7 mths ago
      It's not a downturn in the Sunbelt. It's a downturn everywhere. Why move if there are no jobs and you can't sell your house? When the economic heart stops beating, all circulation stops...
      • Dan 7 mths ago
        Well said.
      • Its Still Stupids Economy 6 mths ago
        funny how unemployment is highest where the pay is the lowest....the right to work you to death states
      • Jack 6 mths ago
        To: Its Still Stupids Economy
        And the cost of living is often higher along with high property taxes in the Sunbelt States, namely Texas.
    • Hal  •  Dallas, United States  •  6 mths ago
      Who can move when you cannot sell your house to anyone at any price?
      • Nano Garcia 6 mths ago
        Sadly,some folks are just walking away,behind in payments or not.I know of someone walking away,not because they coudn't make the note ,but because the value fell below half of what was owed
      • MW35215 6 mths ago
        Can't even GIVE it away.
    • DB  •  Greer, United States  •  7 mths ago
      They are staying put because they can't get out of their upside down house, not by Choice.
      • D 6 mths ago
        They have a choice!
        they could choose to sell the house at a market price.
      • pan 6 mths ago
        D, you are so out of touch with reality. If you are upside on your mortgage, you need permission from your lender to sell. You are stuck. The bank does not want to take a loss. Don't believe that? Then call any realtor or banker and they will enlighten you.
      • Jack 6 mths ago
        The days of many or most choices are over. The Totalitarians and Capitalists have been working toward their agendas for many years and are progressively reaping more rewards.
    • pedro  •  Palmdale, United States  •  7 mths ago
      People will go where the oppurtunity is(jobs) or where they have a support network(Family).
      • Elliot 7 mths ago
        You are so right!!!
      • Jack 6 mths ago
        Especially the illegal aliens!
    • Doug C  •  6 mths ago
      I think the statement "people are staying put" is more like, people are stuck where they are and unable to relocate.
    • Michael  •  Columbus, United States  •  7 mths ago
      What happened to southern hospitality, and mid-western charm. This is America, and are we not getting just a little sick of all the divisiveness in OUR society? I'm from the north, but I love the south and the southwest. I lived in Phoenix for a short time, and I can't wait to go back. That being said, I'm still a Buckeye through and through, and I will always have pride in that, but pride is not a zero sum game. My pride in my state does not equal disdain for yours. I cried the same tears for New Orleans after Katrina as I did for New York and 9/11, didn't you?
    • JL  •  7 mths ago
      People can't afford to move. Who needs a study on that?
    • oldguy  •  San Bernardino, United States  •  7 mths ago
      Brilliant analysis!People stopped migrating from 2007-2010 due to the economy.Who would have guessed?Here is another story. People will move once again when companies start to expand.
    • William Weber  •  7 mths ago
      One problem in Nevada and Arizona is water.
      If there isn't enough water at low enough cost, you will see growth stall. And the weather people warn that weather patterns of centuries ago were arid and those patterns are starting again. Unlike Mexico, the Indians in what is now Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas did not build very many cities because of the lack of water.
      +
      Austin, Texas was hit hard this year (2011) during the summer drought when temperatures rose daily over 100 degrees for over 80 days. And with very little rain, the local lakes on the Colorado river have dropped to below 40% capacity. They are the only source of water for Austin and much of the surrounding area. Others in the country get their water from wells into aquifers, which are recharged only by rain.
      +
      If year 2012 turns out to have very low rainfall, then all "growth" in Austin will have to stop until more water can be brought into the area.
      +
      We shall see.
    • Carl  •  Tampa, United States  •  7 mths ago
      Love it here in the sun belt. This year most of the existing houses sold arounnd us. New folks fromm Ohio, NJ, Mass. Nice to see things turning around. I would not want to see a major influx as things are nice just the way they are .Slow growth is good growth. It is sustainable.
    • W  •  Harrison, United States  •  7 mths ago
      The big problem in the southwest is lack of water and as time goes on it will get worse.
    • HILLTOPPER  •  Clermont, United States  •  7 mths ago
      People cant sell their homes, its that simple.
    • NYT  •  7 mths ago
      No state or local income tax usually means higher property taxes. If you lose your job you don't have to pay state income tax, but you still have to pay property taxes.
    • ZAP  •  Austin, United States  •  7 mths ago
      There still coming to Austin. I locate apartments and rent has gotten stupid expensive here.
    • Corvus Wisus  •  7 mths ago
      People in New York and California can't sell their homes so they can't move. You don't have to be brilliant to figure taht out.
    • Paul S  •  New Paltz, United States  •  7 mths ago
      Sam - Amen, it's the truth, and my job is a good paying job because unions exist...even though it's not a union job. You speak the absolute truth. I'm tired of people making moderate union salaries - most union members - with very small retirements - being DEMONIZED by people who are brainwashed to hate their own middle-class instead of the people who shipped MILLIONS of jobs to Asia.
    • Charlie  •  Phoenix, United States  •  6 mths ago
      Duh... they are not migrating because they can't SELL their homes. If you can't sell, you can't move and you can't buy. Basic economics.
    • Rich K  •  Philadelphia, United States  •  7 mths ago
      As water resources become more scarce in the desert SW, and they will, the populations of AZ and NV will continue to shrink, regardless of what the economy is doing.
    • Hawaii Dude  •  7 mths ago
      Not going back to Phoenix had enough of the dust, heat, and the stucco just to mention a few things.
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