Greg Cosell's Look Ahead: Aaron Rodgers' off day

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is a bit of an outlier.

Nobody throws the ball like him, with that compact delivery and velocity and great ball placement. He also has a random element to his game, although he isn’t really a runner. He plays on the edge of the offense’s structure, often making plays late in the down.

Once in a while, he’ll play on the wrong side of that edge. That’s what happened last week against the Buffalo Bills. He just didn’t have it.

I’m not taking anything away from Buffalo, because they have a good defense, but tactically they didn’t do anything where you said, "This is amazing, I’ve never seen that before." And while they have a good front four that gets bodies around the quarterback, they weren’t drilling Rodgers to the turf. They did a good job recognizing routes based on formation, but mostly it was a game in which Rodgers’ late-in-the-down tendencies just didn’t work.

It was immediately evident that Rodgers was having a bad day throwing the ball; he was glaringly inaccurate beginning in the first quarter. The plays where Rodgers moves and navigates n the pocket and makes a big throw late in the down didn’t happen in this game.

Both of Bills safety Bacarri Rambo’s interceptions were mistakes by Rodgers. On the first one, it was actually a busted coverage. The Bills showed “Cover 3” to cornerback Stephon Gilmore’s side, but “Cover 2” to cornerback Corey Graham’s side. Reading it as “Cover 3,” Rodgers looked to Randall Cobb on the “over” route, and his throw had to beat Rambo, the single high safety. It was just an inaccurate throw to the inside of Cobb that allowed Rambo to jump it. An accurate throw might have been a touchdown.

On the second interception, the Packers went to four receivers and Rodgers threw a slant to Jarrett Boykin. Rodgers hesitated on the initial throw, threw the slant late, and it was picked off as a result.

One thing also caught my eye and I wondered about it as I watched this game: The Bills dictated where Rodgers didn’t throw the ball. It reminded me of Week 1, when the Packers didn’t throw to Seattle Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman’s side, or when the Packers played the New England Patriots and Rodgers rarely threw at top two cornerbacks Darrelle Revis or Brandon Browner, picking on other matchups instead. In this game, the Bills played a deep safety over Cobb’s side often, and Rodgers didn’t target Cobb against that defense. Can other defenses dictate where Rodgers goes with the ball? The sample size from these examples is way too small to draw any conclusions, but it’s something worth monitoring.

Manning's strength

Peyton Manning dealt with a thigh injury and the flu last weekend, but he was still able to do something he does as well as any quarterback: exploit matchups in man-to-man coverage. That was the story of the Denver Broncos’ win over the San Diego Chargers.

The best example came on a 28-yard touchdown to Demaryius Thomas late in the third quarter. The Chargers ran “man free blitz” so Manning had Thomas against Brandon Flowers. He threw a back-shoulder throw and it turned into a touchdown.

The Broncos have played a much different offense in the last month, with far less shotgun formation and a lot less passing, but if the Cincinnati Bengals give Manning man-to-man matchups to exploit, he will do it.

Griffin progress, but still work to do

Washington Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III started last week against the Giants, and he showed some improvement overall. He was more comfortable, less frenetic in the pocket and coach Jay Gruden helped him tremendously with an emphasis on play action and bootleg action with defined either/or reads.

But there are still things Griffin needs to work on, as we saw. When it was third and long and the play-calling couldn’t control his reads as much, he struggled. The longer he stayed in the pocket, the less effective he was, and he still lacks refined pocket clarity.

Let’s take a look at an example. On a fourth and 2 early in the third quarter, the play design was a quick slant to tight end Jordan Reed, the “X iso” against safety Antrel Rolle. Griffin didn’t believe he had the throw initially because linebacker Jameel McClain filled the passing lane. Reed was wide open in the second window after McClain passed, but Griffin came off of Reed despite no pressure. He didn’t have a good sense of the concept against the man coverage.

It will be a work in progress for Griffin, and we’ll see what progress he makes against Philadelphia on Saturday.

Chiefs open up

The Kansas City Chiefs have famously not thrown much to receivers this season, but they did more of it last week, and Alex Smith made some nice throws. One came on a 37-yard gain to Dwayne Bowe in the third quarter, when Jason Avant ran a “9” route deep and Bowe ran a “6” route, or a deep dig, and Smith made an excellent throw.

Smith isn’t a great thrower, in part because he locks his front leg when he throws. Locked-leg throwers can’t get much velocity, their accuracy is up and down and they can’t drive the football. Smith won’t make mistakes though. But I think the Chiefs are going to have to open up the offense more, like they did against Oakland. I don’t think they can win a 13-10 type game at Pittsburgh; the Steelers offense is too potent. And if they make the playoffs, I’m not sure they can win there with a limited offense either.

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NFL analyst and NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell watches as much NFL game film as anyone. Throughout the season, Cosell will join Shutdown Corner to share his observations on the teams, schemes and personnel from around the league.