What are the chances that the House of Representatives will pass comprehensive immigration reform?
Political scientist Tom Wong has been taking a scientific approach to answering that very question, tallying votes and crunching numbers to forecast the potential outcomes, and tells Power Players he’s “skeptical” the House will follow the Senate’s lead and pass a comprehensive bill.
Based on his own vote tally, Wong says there are 203 solid ‘yes’ votes in the House and an additional 11 votes that are likely but not guaranteed.
“If we take that 203 number, add 11 more we're at 214, and we need 218 for a majority, so this ends up being a game of inches,” says the assistant professor at the University of California, San Diego. “It could go either way in the House.”
The 11 votes that Wong has designated as maybe votes are for representatives who are facing tight reelection races in 2014.
Wong says more than 60 percent of congressional districts are not racially diverse, withRead More »from Path to 218: Why one political scientist is skeptical the House will get the votes to pass immigration reform