Power Players

Chances of a Brokered Convention

George Stephanopoulos
Power Players

Bottom Line

Can Rick Santorum get his wish and force a brokered convention in Tampa? Mitt Romney's campaign said it would take an "act of God" for Santorum to secure enough delegates to win the nomination, and last night Santorum seemed to side with the former Massachusetts governor.

"One of my opponents recently said that it would take an act of God for me to win this primary. I agree with him," Santorum told the congregation at an evangelical church in Puerto Rico.

Santorum would have to win nearly 70% of the remaining delegates in order to secure the nomination, and as long as Romney is in the race that's close to impossible.

On the other hand Mitt Romney needs to get nearly half of the remaining delegates in order to win the nomination. So there is a chance Santorum could block him and force a brokered convention, meaning none of the candidates received the 1,144 delegates needed.

But to do it, Santorum would have to basically sweep all the big states left:

Illinois next week. (And even that win might not get him most of the delegates because Santorum's off the ballot in a few districts.)

Then he needs upsets in Wisconsin and Maryland on April 3rd — plus a sweep of New York and Pennsylvania at the end of the month.

In May, he'd need to win big on the 8th:  Indiana, West Virginia and North Carolina — and hope that gives him enough momentum to win three of the five contests on June 5th.  One of those wins would have to be either New Jersey or California.

All that would cripple Romney heading to Tampa.  Is it likely?  Not really, but not impossible either.

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