Ohio: Why Rick Santorum Can’t Afford to Lose

George Stephanopoulos

The Bottom Line

For one man in this race his entire campaign will come down to one state next week: Ohio.

In order for Rick Santorum to keep a path open to the Republican nomination he must win most of Ohio's 66 delegates.

Santorum's chief competitor, Mitt Romney, will take Vermont and Massachusetts. He'll also take most of Virginia's 49 delegates since he's only on the ballot with Ron Paul there.

The road is tougher for Romney in the south, where Santorum is doing well in Tennessee and Oklahoma. Newt Gingrich has made his home state of Georgia do or die for his campaign.

But since the former Massachusetts governor is playing everywhere he'll pick up delegates, including in the Idaho caucuses and Alaska.

Romney already has nearly double the delegates of Rick Santorum. And it's almost certain that Romney is going to pick up most of the delegates on Super Tuesday. Therefore the only way Rick Santorum can break thru is if he beats Romney by a wide margin in Ohio, a state Republicans need to win in November.

My Bottom Line: Mitt Romney can win the nomination without Ohio. But Rick Santorum can't.