The daily push and pull of the 2012 election—who said what stupid thing, which party threw a better convention—is unfolding against a backdrop of economic catastrophe unseen in recent history. To predict the outcome, we have to somehow reconcile the broad historical trends, which do not favor President Obama, with the more immediate factors that do.
Data from the Signal's prediction model for the past 10 months tells the story of this tension starkly. When Republicans miss a step or drag their feet, the odds that Obama will win a second term rise. When economic news is front and center, those odds decline. If everything stays the same from one day to the next, the odds list toward Obama for the simple reason that challenger Mitt Romney is running out of time to make his case.
At the moment, that tug-of-war favors the president, whose postconvention poll bounce was larger than expected. That, combined with strong fundraising numbers for August, propels Obama to his highest likelihood of re-election since the Signal launched. Obama currently has a 64 percent likelihood for re-election over Romney.Read More »from Romney’s chief opponent is not Obama. It’s time.