• TAMPA -- As an equivocating rain peppers the Republican convention, the discussion both on the ground and in cyberspace never wanders far from the tropical storm heading for New Orleans. While Isaac spared Tampa the brunt of its winds and rain, it has collided head on with the Romney campaign's optics.

    On Monday morning, for example, the hashtag "#isaac" was mentioned five times as often as "#rnc," according to the Signal's analysis:

    The Signal

    Stay tuned for more updates on how this logistical tangle is playing out online and on the ground.

    Read More »from First day of convention muted by Isaac (in Tampa and on Twitter)
  • Not so long ago, those hoping to connect deadly shootings to a political point about gun control did so at their peril. When Virginia congressional candidate Keith Fimian suggested in 2010 that the Virginia Tech shootings might have been averted if some of the students were armed, his opponent savaged him with an ad featuring the brother of one of the victims. (Fimian, a Republican, ended up losing to Rep. Gerry Connolly by fewer than 1,000 votes in a year that was generally unkind to incumbent Democrats.)

    While gun violence always inspires some scrutiny of firearm laws, this summer's spate of shootings appears to have eliminated whatever waiting period once existed before politics entered the conversation—particularly for those who oppose stricter laws. Friday's shooting near the Empire State Building was no exception. By noon, the most shared link among Tweets about the shooting, as measured by Yahoo News' in-house Twitter analysis, was a blog post by a conservative New Yorker titled "Empire State Building Shooting Is Proof that Gun Control Doesn't Work." (This measurement does not include the 50-plus tweets the author, Jonathan Stein, directed to different users promoting his post, though there is clearly some effect of self-promotion here.)

    Meanwhile, the most-mentioned award goes to actor Marlon Wayans, he of "White Chicks" fame, for this tweet:

    Read More »from As shootings accumulate, the hesitation to politicize them approaches zero
  • When you squint your eyes and look only at the broad historical trends at play in this presidential election, all signs point to a victory for Mitt Romney in November.

    Back in February, the Signal's first draft of its elections model, which relied only on historical data, predicted that Obama would win the election with 303 electoral votes. This model relies heavily on economic indicators and was published before the dismal second quarter economic figures. If you apply that same model through June, Romney wins with 290 electoral votes to Obama's 248.

    The upcoming issue of the peer-reviewed PS: Political Science & Politics includes two models from other researchers that reach the same conclusion. One study by a pair of University of Colorado political scientists, announced yesterday, predicts that Romney will walk away with 320 electoral votes on the back of high unemployment. A second study, by Douglas Hibbs, concludes Obama's weakness includes the death toll in Afghanistan.

    I have serious reservations about both papers; for example, our methodology is very conclusive that recent movement in economic indicators correlate with election outcomes, not the overall levels. But I will not subject the readers to the brutal crossfire of warring presidential forecasters. The point is that all of these fundamental models point in the same direction: Romney. And as of today, they are all wrong. That is, all these models look at only half the picture and are not useful today as standalone forecasts.

    Those of us in the business of predicting elections rely on two broad sets of data: what has happened in the past, and what polls and markets suggest will happen in the future.

    Read More »from All signs point to a Romney victory except one (a very big one)


(177 Stories)

About The Signal

The Signal is the Yahoo! News predictions blog featuring real-time forecasts and sentiment on politics, economics, and more. MEET THE TEAM: David Pennock, David Rothschild



How to subscribe

Roll over each section to subscribe using Add to My Yahoo or RSS Feed feeds.

Yahoo News offers dozens of RSS feeds you can read in My Yahoo or using third-party RSS news reader software. Click here to find out more about RSS and how you can use it with Yahoo News.

Meet The Signal Team

Remake America

In 2012, Yahoo! News will tell the nation’s story through the experiences and views of real Americans like you. Watch the first Remake America video »