• Where are the disgruntled masses moving?

    It's a sacred ritual of American elections that fans of the losing party threaten to leave the country, and then do not. We can see this phenomenon in effect by examining instances of the phrase "I'm moving to [country]" on Twitter around the time the election was called.

    Curiously, Canada--long the imagined haven of liberals in years in which Republicans win--is the most popular choice. (Perhaps it's just close?) Australia comes in second, followed by ... Colorado? The people promising to move there are perhaps motivated by electoral news other than the winner of the presidency.

    Read More »from Where are the disgruntled masses moving?
  • Update, Wednesday Nov. 7, 1:50 p.m.: Earlier today, Nevada was called for the Republicans and Montana for the Democrats, leaving only North Dakota unresolved. We give it a 90 percent chance of going Democratic.

    This means we expect the Democrats to have 54 seats in the next Senate, plus the likely addition of independent Angus King of Maine.

  • Throughout the night, the Signal will be providing updates to our predictions for the presidency and Senate. This is not a real-time tally of results—Yahoo News has that covered—but rather a frequently updated set of our predictions, based on returns, exit polls and prediction markets.

    Update, 11:22 p.m.: Obama is not longer virtually certain to win, just certain.

    Update, 10:44 p.m.: Obama is virtually certain to win.

    Update, 10:10 p.m.: The election continues to break as predicted. As we enter the last stage of the voting, we are waiting to see where FL, VA and OH end up.

    Update, 9:50 p.m.: Ohio and Florida are now both strongly pointing toward an Obama victory.

    Update, 8:45 p.m.: Only a small fraction of the actual results are in, but what has impressed us so far tonight is how similar the exit polls have tracked with the past few weeks of regular polling. This gives us confidence that the results we have predicted will mainly hold. Heavily leaning states, like Pennsylvania, are going to end up in the Obama column. Florida and Virginia are extremely tight, but as soon as one goes to Obama, if either does, then the election is effectively over. The prediction markets are about 90 percent sure the president will be re-elected heading into the 9 p.m. results.

    Read More »from The Signal’s election night scoreboard: Obama wins


(177 Stories)

About The Signal

The Signal is the Yahoo! News predictions blog featuring real-time forecasts and sentiment on politics, economics, and more. MEET THE TEAM: David Pennock, David Rothschild



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