With anywhere from days to weeks remaining in the long and tortured period of speculation over Mitt Romney's running mate, the Signal is increasingly convinced that either Ohio Sen. Rob Portman or former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty will get the nod. The prediction markets currently give them a 35 percent and 16 percent chance of victory, respectively. In other words, there's better than a 1-2 chance that Romney will opt for the safest choices available.
You could be forgiven for needing a refresher on which of these two politicians is which. Portman and Pawlenty are both white males in their 50s with records as reliable conservatives, not firebrands. Either would provide Romney cover from the right while providing a sense of prudent sensibility to the rest of the country. These men both provide a moderate benefit, credibility with the right, with little potential cost.
Running mate odds
Sources: Betfair and Intrade
From a strategic standpoint, the biggest difference between them is that Portman is fromRead More »from Prediction markets leaning toward safe choice for Romney’s running mate