Over and over, we've found that the political prediction markets offer accurate, real-time information on the odds of a politician's victory in any major contest. But there's a darker, less tested corner to some of the sites that allow people to wager real money on the outcome of world events. The gambling site Intrade, for example, is currently taking action on whether the regime of Syria's authoritarian president, Bashar Assad, will crumble before the end of the year. If that doesn't suit you, you can also gamble on whether the United States or Israel will bomb Iran in the same time frame.

The reason the political markets are so useful for predicting election outcomes is that the people with money on the line have an incentive to gather as much information as possible about the odds of a politician's victory. In addition to polls, they can consult fundraising figures, news stories and a wealth of other data. When it comes to the fate of Syria or Iran, on the other hand, the universe of data is far less defined. But let's have a look and see how the market odds react to world events.

Prediction market-based forecasts place the likelihood of a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities in 2012 by the United States or Israel at 33 percent. This likelihood of conflict in Iran is down in the last three months, which we expect to see as the number of days left in the year dwindles and the expiration of the contract approaches. The number should trend toward zero every day there is no airstrike and no new development in the conflict. The main jump in the odds appeared in early March, coinciding with information that Iran had increased its production of higher-grade enriched uranium. Those odds came down quickly as stalled talks with Iran resumed within days.