If you need your fix of market data this morning and can't take another word out of the mouth of a man running for president, we've got Oscar predictions for you here at The Signal. Using the same methods to predict entertainment awards as we have done to predict political elections and sports games, we are extremely confident that The Artist will take home the Best Picture laurels; we give it an 89.7 percent likelihood of victory.
Unlike the state and federal elections, we have no polling to utilize for our predictions. Recent research has determined what the Academy electorate looks like, but it would be very costly to create a randomized selection of these 5,783 potential voters; due to their rarefied stature, they are not the easiest to reach in random polling.
But as we've somewhat gleefully pointed out, polls undulate with the wind while markets react with a cooler head. Thus, we base our likelihood off the prediction markets Betfair and Intrade. On these websites, users can buyRead More »from Markets heavily favor The Artist for top Oscar laurels