• Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has long insisted he belongs in the top tier of Republican candidates for the 2012 nomination--even in the wake of campaign staff implosions and embarrassing reports of his free-spending patronage of Tiffany's.

    And as Gingrich gains noticeable momentum in the polls, the prediction markets are also starting to take him more seriously. Gingrich's stock in prediction markets such as Intrade has been gaining ground over the past few weeks, but took a sharp upward turn on Monday as the media broke a round of damaging allegations about Herman Cain: claims of sexual harassment dating to Cain's 1990s tenure at the National Restaurant Association, together with reports of campaign fundraising violations.

    In the short term, the unorthodox Cain campaign has yet to show signs of flagging in the face of the charges--a new Washington Post/ABC poll shows him essentially tied with Mitt Romney atop the GOP field. But a look at the larger picture via the prediction

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  • David Rothschild, Ph.D.David Rothschild is an economist at Yahoo! Research. He has a Ph.D. in applied economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. His dissertation is in creating aggregated forecasts from individual-level information. He has written extensively, in both the academic and popular press, on polling, prediction markets, and predictions of upcoming events. He has academic papers that cover the following interest areas: political economy, behavior economics/public opinion, public economics/public policy, industrial organization, and experimental economics. On The Signal he will be blogging about economics and politics, overseeing all of the prediction and sentiment models, and coordinating with a vast team the creation of prediction games for you to play!

    2006-2011 (graduate): University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business … Ph.D. in Applied Economics (Business and Public Policy Department)
    1998-2002 (undergraduate): Brown University

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  • David Pennock Bio

    David Pennock, Ph.D.David Pennock is a Principal Research Scientist at Yahoo! Research in New York City, where he leads a group focused on algorithmic economics. He has over sixty academic publications relating to computational issues in electronic commerce and the web, including papers in PNAS, Science, AI Magazine, IEEE Computer, Theoretical Computer Science, Algorithmica, Electronic Commerce Research, Electronic Markets, AAAI, EC, WWW, KDD, UAI, SIGIR, ICML, NIPS, INFOCOM, SAINT, ACM SIGCSE, and VLDB. He has authored two patents and ten patent applications. In 2005, he was named to MIT Technology Review's list of 35 top technology innovators under age 35. Prior to his current position at Yahoo!, Pennock worked as a research scientist at NEC Laboratories America, a research intern at Microsoft Research, and in 2001 served as an adjunct professor at Pennsylvania State University. His work has been featured in Discover Magazine, New Scientist, CNN, the New York Times, the Economist, James Surowiecki's

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(177 Stories)

About The Signal

The Signal is the Yahoo! News predictions blog featuring real-time forecasts and sentiment on politics, economics, and more. MEET THE TEAM: David Pennock, David Rothschild



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