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    As Gingrich’s fate rises, so does Obama’s

    As he prepares for his third State of the Union address--and, he hopes, not his last--Barack Obama's likelihood of reelection has soared in the last few days to 56.8 percent, the highest it has been since last July. This movement correlates with Newt Gingrich's increased likelihood of gaining the Republican nomination, now at 29.7 percent, up from about 5 percent. This upward trend also correlates with a simultaneous downward movement of Mitt Romney's likelihood of winning the presidency if he wins the nomination, now at 44.0, down from about 48 percent. We utilize prediction market data for these likelihoods.

    Likelihoods from 2012 Presidential Election

    Sources: Betfair and Intrade

    In short, the markets think Obama is more likely to defeat Gingrich than Romney, so when the former speaker's fortunes elevate, so do the president's. Over the last week, Gingrich's likelihood of winning the nomination has climbed from about 5 percent to about 30 percent. Currently, Gingrich is about 39 percent likely to defeat Obama if he makes it to the general election, while Romney is about 44 percent likely to reach the White House if he's the nominee.

    An ordinary least squares regression--one of the most weathered tools in the statistician's toolbelt--determines that the Gingrich-Romney battle determines about 87.5 percent of the variability in Obama's likelihood of reelection. To wit, for every 10 percent more likely Gingrich is to win the nomination, Obama is 0.75 percent more likely to win reelection. For every 10 percent less likely Romney is to win the election if he wins the nomination, Obama is 2.75 percent more likely to win reelection. If they're watching the same markets we are at 1600 Pennsylvania, you can be sure they're wearing Gingrich pom-poms.

    Follow along on PredictWise for the real-time likelihood of the upcoming republican primaries, the Republican nomination, and the presidential election.

    David Rothschild is an economist at Yahoo! Research. He has a Ph.D. in applied economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. His dissertation is in creating aggregated forecasts from individual-level information. Follow him on Twitter @DavMicRot and email him at thesignal@yahoo-inc.com.

    Want more? Visit The Signal blog or connect with us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

     
    • Scott  •  Tomball, Texas  •  1 mth 0 days ago
      I think politicians should wear uniforms like nascar drivers so we could idenify their corporate sponsors!
    • Wimpy  •  Nashua, New Hampshire  •  1 mth 0 days ago
      If we are expecting to get clean water from a polluted well, we are going to be sadly disappointed. Politics is a cess-pool and has been for a long time.
    • Bonnie  •  Fair Oaks, California  •  29 days ago
      I wish voters would just listen, read, and do their homework rather than assuming that they know what a candidate thinks and stands for. There are so many posts here that aren't just biased, they are flat out lying. If you want the right to vote then you owe it to our country to make an educated choice BY EDUCATING YOURSELF WITH THE FACTS. Watch debates, look at records. Don't just throw out hyped blurbs that you read on Yahoo. To get our country out of this mess, it will take a wee bit of effort on our part.
    • oops  •  Westborough, Massachusetts  •  1 mth 0 days ago
      It's our fault.........................we keep re-electing these idiot's that allow lobbyist to write the laws for cash incentives. What a sweet (3 days a week) job we have allowed them to have and with benefits..
    • Bill Moody  •  1 mth 0 days ago
      I'm really beginning to hate politics... more than ever before.
    • ..--..  •  11 days ago
      i will take Speaker Gingrich over obama anyday - I will take a 9th grade civics teacher over obama right NOW, obama must be defeated for the good of the country
    • Conrad  •  29 days ago
      Nothing will change much at all no matter who is elected or re-elected, unless We the people change the makeup of the Senate and Congress to get the right things done for all Americans!
      The two political parties has us devided against our own best interest while they keep doing business as usual for their political parties for the control of the House and Senate. It's shame on us because we keep sending the same old people back, again and again. They have lost touch with the American people at large
    • Sky K  •  29 days ago
      "fate rises" ?? never heard of fate rising before. i've heard of dough rising, the sun rising, but not fate.
    • mac  •  29 days ago
      Source: Betfair and Intrade.

      Two basically betting and trading services.

      Yahoo... seriously, this is NOT a good source to do a story on. Try harder if you want to get your propaganda across as actual news.
    • Dude  •  San Francisco, California  •  29 days ago
      the press will run this story until we all throw up
    • Rooster  •  29 days ago
      Voters are to blame for the mess that is Washington
    • A Yahoo! User  •  Grand Rapids, Michigan  •  29 days ago
      Where are the farmers, teachers, RN's, and small businiess people running for congress or president? Those are the people representing the common person not the millionaires. Too bad so much money is being used to run when so many people are homeless and/or losing their homes. The congress does not reflect the common american. Between Mitt and Gingrich we are in a sad state of affairs.
    • Schitt  •  Medford, Oregon  •  29 days ago
      Republicans vs Democrats = All Americans Lose
      Democrats vs Republicans = All Americans Lose
      Democracy is NOT about saving a political party. It's about doing the right things for ALL Americans.
    • robjaz  •  Chaska, Minnesota  •  29 days ago
      I wish we could take the money used toget idiots elected and put it to something this country can really use like affordable healthcare, reducing the deficit anything rather than wasting it on someones election campaign.
    • Joe  •  Kansas City, Missouri  •  1 mth 0 days ago
      I don't know whether to laugh or cry at the proud ignorance of probability and statistics in these comments.
    • Jason B  •  29 days ago
      The problem with these types of "predictors" is that people accept them as gospel truth and point to them as proof of fraud if their guy doesn't win.
    • Bob  •  29 days ago
      I wish they would do away with opinion polls. Too many people vote on the basis of who they perceive to be the 'favorite'. People need to understand the policies that the different parties represent and vote on the basis of the issues. If you don't know the difference between the Libertarian, Republican and Democrat platforms you shouldn't vote.
    • Great  •  29 days ago
      People saying republicans are rich..well are you saying the democrats are poor...? lol..they are both rich..both party's are filthy rich..Politics is a rich man's game..anyone who says otherwise is just a homer for his side....scary that some of you have the right to vote..
    • Jerry  •  Las Vegas, Nevada  •  29 days ago
      Well Americans, we now can see, unless your simply blind deaf, politicians are not running for office for the best interest of the American People......Period..... When the Supreme court ruled to allow all these big time money pacs to put their money on who they want elected is exactly what it is, CORRUPTION AT IT'S WORST. And who do we blame for this oh yea some will jump right on Obama, hell, he did what he could to prevent it, but whoooooaaa someone got to you know who on the Bench. Money talks, #$%$ walks.... Isn't it about time, americans stand up and put it all to rest. One year in Office, nothing good for the voters, your gone. One year in Office, you attach a rider to a bill for your rich buddy, hell your not just gone, your in jail. When something like that is put into affect, we as americans (mostly poor) will finally be winners, until then, the politicans, their rich corp buddies, billionares, oil corp. Insur. corps own every darn one of us.
    • DavidS  •  1 mth 0 days ago
      Anyone proofread this article? "This movement is correlates with...." and "But, this upward trend is also correlates with....." I quit reading after the first three sentences.
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