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    Polls now favor Santorum, the ninth flip of the nomination

    Rick Santorum has slipped ahead of the Mitt Romney in the polls, marking an ignominious milestone in the Republican nomination: Since last summer, when Romney was at the top of the early polls, the lead has switched nine times. In order, it's gone to Rick Perry, Romney, Herman Cain, Romney, Gingrich, Romney, Gingrich, Romney, and Santorum, who now leads the Real Clear Politics' aggregated trend with 30.2 percent to Romney's 28.6 percent. Notice a pattern?

    The Signal continues to predict that Romney will win the nomination. According to the prediction markets, he has a 72.8 percent likelihood to win the nomination, followed by Santorum at a non-negligible 17.8 percent. That's a far more vulnerable position for the former Massachusetts governor than he found himself in a few weeks ago, but it's still an uphill battle for Santorum. On the following chart, the vertical line represents when the first polls closed on Tuesday, February 7, when Santorum won three primary states (two for delegates and one beauty contest).

    Likelihood of Republican Nomination for President_Feb14

    Sources: Betfair and Intrade

    Santorum has also but he has overtaken Romney in recent polls in Michigan. On the strength of recent polls by American Research Group and PPP--two polling organizations which use questionable methodologies--the New York Time's Nate Silver has Santorum 75 percent likely to carry the state where Romney was born, his father served as governor, and he carried easily in 2008.

    We are a little more cautious with Santorum; The markets suggest he is 55.7 percent likely to carry Michigan to Romney's 44.7 percent. These numbers have certainly moved in Santorum's favor over the last few days, but not nearly as much as in those models that rely completely on polling.

    The reason that our numbers differ from the polling numbers is because we are looking forward, where the polls attempt to take a snapshot of the world today. Romney has serious advantages over Santorum as the Michigan primary and the rest of the GOP nominating contests progress. Romney has much more money and organization than Santorum. And the polls so far have reliably returned to Romney after every flirtation (or re-flirtation) with another candidate, with the regularity of a dippy bird.

    Follow along on PredictWise for the real-time likelihood of the upcoming republican primaries, the Republican nomination, and the presidential election.

    David Rothschild is an economist at Yahoo! Research. He has a Ph.D. in applied economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. His dissertation is in creating aggregated forecasts from individual-level information. Follow him on Twitter @DavMicRot and email him at thesignal@yahoo-inc.com.

    Want more? Visit The Signal blog or connect with us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

     
    • Don  •  Miami, Florida  •  1 mth 12 days ago
      Rick is not going to last. I predict he will quit!
    • BlogDog  •  Beaumont, California  •  3 mths ago
      WARNING TO ALL: Time to quit sounding like the Presidential races in 2000, 2004, 2008. Time to grow up and consider all comers. Time to set aside partisan baloney and think for the country as a whole. We can't afford anything else.
      • Railroad1125 3 mths ago
        But all the money is in a two party system. With corporations now people, you can forget non partisan crap for at least another 20 years until a new SCOTUS realizes its mistake and reverses this decision. This non partisan speak is the dumbazz stuff Ron Paul supporters keep spouting off. Ron Paul can't even be voted President of the Island of Misfit Toys.... so realize that Ross Perot 2.0 isn't going to work any better than the original release. Realize that it's either Democrat or Republican. And if you think that any of these GOP clowns are better than the Demoocrat clown already in office - then you have bigger problems than this next election. As always, the lesser of two evils. Obama is the lesser of all evils involved. Huntsmann was the GOP best bet, but he wasn't crazy enough to get the money.... so suck it up, America, and wait for Christie 2016
      • brian 3 mths ago
        We also can't afford another term with President Downgrade. Anyone but Nobama.
      • Rob 3 mths ago
        Sorry that doesn't fly with me. We were given the same choice last election. Anyone but Bush and see where that got us. Democrats and Republicans are cut from the same cloth. It's time we had a Ron Paul in the white house. At least he will do what he says he will do, not lie in our faces and do just the opposite. Your a brainwashed fool if you think things are ever going to change unless we purge and replace the entire system.
    • CharlieC  •  Macon, Georgia  •  3 mths ago
      These polls are killing us. We need to stop the popularity contests, and use objective criteria to decide the best candidate. This constant beauty contest is counter-productive. Sound bites don't teach the electorate much!
      • casual observer 3 mths ago
        What objective criteria would you suggest? The problem is that every candidate comes from a different background: Governor, Representative, Senator, Representative. How do you establish an objective standard?
      • Fedora 3 mths ago
        Your screen name sums it up—"Casual Observer". Now I understand the reasoning behind your question There is none... LOL... Will you be voting absentee ballot this next election? I agree with you Charlie, one has to wonder how influential polls are and do they turn the process of choosing a nominee and president into a simple popularity contest. Very little discussion of the candidates records and positions on the issues—sad commentary on the American electorate...
      • Norman 3 mths ago
        What we need is a good poll on the polls. One I might add is coming up on November sixth. The polls had Truman as the loser and newspaper headlines even annonced Dewey as winner, per polls, but alas they had to deal with those pesky voters trumping them. Anyone who takes his cue from a poll has a hole, spelled poll, in his head. They make good conversation starters but that's the end of their usefulness. Heres a good poll question, if you take four Republicans, put them in a cage and let them out in August, which one will lose to Obama in November. I'll bet the pollsters don't get it right seven out of ten polls with a twenty percent error factor.
    • andree  •  Houston, Texas  •  3 mths ago
      Rick fears those unlike him. That is a problem if you want to govern a diverse country in a diverse world.
      • ThomasL 3 mths ago
        I believe your fear is that Obama is going to loose if he has to run against anyone other than Rommey.
      • Trout 3 mths ago
        Actually, the Women voting in this country would make sure that Rick would never win.
      • Rob M 3 mths ago
        So Trout you speak for all the women in this country?
        Last time I checked in the GOP, Rick leads among women voters for the Republican nomination.
    • Neutral Party  •  Winthrop, Massachusetts  •  3 mths ago
      The republicans have blown this big time with their circus. This November should have been an easy win for them but now Obama will have very little trouble winning a second term. Time to start thinking about 2016.
      • Yahoo User 3 mths ago
        You may be right unless Ron Paul pulls a rabbit and wins the GOP nomination
    • Mike Dino  •  3 mths ago
      It amazes me that Americans are willing to elect a guy who has no sense of the working class in Romney and a guy that has no sense of what century it is in Santorum.
      • JoMamma 3 mths ago
        the same applies to the current potus
      • Alfonso 3 mths ago
        It amazes me that they're content voting for a communist again.
    • David  •  Portland, Oregon  •  3 mths ago
      So more people now favor Santorum yet Romeny has a 73% chance of getting the nomination? Is this poll saying that this poll is worthless?
    • Martin  •  Tampa, Florida  •  3 mths ago
      The only number that counts is the delegate votes, dorkuses.
    • MichaelB  •  Vestal, New York  •  3 mths ago
      The GOP continues to tilt to the right to the point where they are walking sideways. How can they expect to capture a general election with this collection of candidates? Not that I'm complaining.
    • Bill b  •  Charleston, South Carolina  •  3 mths ago
      So he's the "not Romney" this week?
    • David Jones  •  Lisle, Illinois  •  3 mths ago
      I just heard today on FOX NEWS (lol) that there could be the emergence of another candidate since all this candidates don't measure up.
    • MarcD  •  3 mths ago
      The new Frontrunner of the Week forecast. Until it changes. AGAIN.
    • andree  •  Houston, Texas  •  3 mths ago
      if Santorum represents the mindset of a large number of Americans, then America is doomed.You can't take spoken words back, so be careful of what you say
      Rick knew what he was saying, and he knew the audience he was saying it to would embrace it
    • sb14blue  •  Torrance, California  •  3 mths ago
      This is exactly why ALL of the states need to vote on the same date. The process we have now only supports the candidate who has the most money. Give each candidate a 30 minute speech on national television. Then have four or five debates... One for each major news outlet. Then allow the candidates two months to campaign across the country. And then vote. Winner gets the nomination and it only takes three months.
    • lee  •  Milwaukee, Wisconsin  •  3 mths ago
      HOW did the Reublican party BECOME so hijacked? Rick is so FAR out of the mainstream,it's SCARY.
    • Jim C  •  Corvallis, Oregon  •  3 mths ago
      The more I delve into history, both of this country and the world in general, the more I believe that we are at a very critical crossroad for this country.

      I firmly believe that this presidential race, is going to determine whether America will continue to exist as described in the constitution, or whether it will fall prey to those who seek, not the idea of national sovereignty and freedom, but rather globalist tyranny and world domination under their heel.

      As an American, you must stop falling for the dichotomy of the current thought process. Stop looking at things as being republican or democrat, or liberal and conservative. Those are just names. Names change all the time. Stop and look at ACTIONS. Actions speak a thousand words. Actions determine what something or someone REALLY is.

      If I say I have a majestic golden rainbow feces, it is STILL a big pile of excrement, no matter what I call it.

      This is not a fight against republicans and democrats. This is not a fight against liberals and conservatives. This is a fight for the very existence of America as described in the constitution of the united states of America. The same America that our forefathers and every soldier fought and died for. Do your civic duty, and at the very least, do your homework and educate yourself as to what has been happening to us.

      It is up to us to defend our constitution and the freedoms it gives us. If we fail in our duty to protect it, we have failed not only those who have come before us, but those who shall come after.
    • Georgew_dunce  •  3 mths ago
      9 MORE FLIPS to come
    • andree  •  Houston, Texas  •  3 mths ago
      God may be entitled to judge our faith and virtue, Senator Santorum, but you are not.
    • ECCENTRIC  •  3 mths ago
      It just shows the level of anger, lunacy, and ignorance in this country that these twits get as far as they do. Rick Santorum is about as qualified to be president as Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, and......Gordon Gekko Romney. At least Gordon Gekko Romney LOOKS the part, but he is a very evil and dangeropus man also. He just has the smarts to cloak it. The others are just complete buffoons; get them upset and they'll nuke a country to show their displeasure.
    • Nico  •  3 mths ago
      Issue: Our Healthcare System is corrupt. Had appendicitis 2 months ago and finally got the bill this week. Had my appendix removed and one night in the hosiptal... $41,000 bill! My insurance pays most but it just illustrates how out of touch with reality our system is ($600 dollars each time they came into the room and gave me a vicodin... each instance itemized).

    About The Signal

    The Signal is the Yahoo! News predictions blog featuring real-time forecasts and sentiment on politics, economics, and more. MEET THE TEAM: David Pennock, David Rothschild

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