Throughout the night, the Signal will be providing updates to our predictions for the presidency and Senate. This is not a real-time tally of results—Yahoo News has that covered—but rather a frequently updated set of our predictions, based on returns, exit polls and prediction markets.
Update, 11:22 p.m.: Obama is not longer virtually certain to win, just certain.
Update, 10:44 p.m.: Obama is virtually certain to win.
Update, 10:10 p.m.: The election continues to break as predicted. As we enter the last stage of the voting, we are waiting to see where FL, VA and OH end up.
Update, 9:50 p.m.: Ohio and Florida are now both strongly pointing toward an Obama victory.
Update, 8:45 p.m.: Only a small fraction of the actual results are in, but what has impressed us so far tonight is how similar the exit polls have tracked with the past few weeks of regular polling. This gives us confidence that the results we have predicted will mainly hold. Heavily leaning states, like Pennsylvania, are going to end up in the Obama column. Florida and Virginia are extremely tight, but as soon as one goes to Obama, if either does, then the election is effectively over. The prediction markets are about 90 percent sure the president will be re-elected heading into the 9 p.m. results.
And here's the Senate:
David Rothschild has a Ph.D. in applied economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Follow him on Twitter @DavMicRot.
- Politics & Government