(Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
It is easy to imagine the private gnashing of teeth and the rending of garments among Republican Party elites. By losing Alabama and Mississippi, Mitt Romney proved again that he is an establishment candidate with a strange power to anesthetize grassroots enthusiasm. The soaring Rick Santorum boasts a strange power to reopen seemingly settled 1950s moral disputes. Any day now, Santorum may turn his sights on such national crises as teenage petting. Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich has been reduced to the 2012 equivalent of an old-time favorite son sticking around in case the Tampa convention needs a third choice on the seventh ballot. As for Ron Paul, let's just politely say that it is more than a media conspiracy that is keeping him from victory.
Beyond the limitations of the four remaining candidates, there is another frequently voiced Republican lament: "Why are we still squabbling among each other when by now we should be concentrating on beating President Obama?"
March has traditionally been the rally-around-the-flag month in presidential politics, the moment when a de facto nominee is anointed and all remaining primaries become Soviet-style referenda devoid of meaning or suspense. Insiders in both parties prize predictability, which is why the Ides of March usually marks the demise of any would-be Caesar unwilling to accept the verdict of the political gods. Persnickety voters and the messiness of democracy can be tolerated, but not when they get in the way of orderly five-months-in-advance planning for a late-summer convention.
This obsession with an early conclusion to the primaries is ludicrous, both in political terms and as a way of picking a president. A presumptive nominee waiting around for months until the confetti bath at the convention, with no real public responsibilities, can look ridiculous. Back in 1996, Bob Dole was so befuddled by the pre-convention waiting game that he resigned from the Senate that he loved in order to vault himself back into the headlines. A swift end to the 2004 Democratic nomination fight left John Kerry ill-prepared and unarmed against an assault from the Swift Boat Veterans over his Vietnam War record. Kerry's response: An unusually swift early July vice-presidential choice of John Edwards, who was said to have "honored the lessons of home and family learned in North Carolina." (But as John McCain demonstrated in 2008, five months of unhurried reflection about potential running mates does not automatically produce a sterling vice-presidential pick.)
The main reason not to rush the choice of a presidential nominee is that (warning: startling revelation ahead) circumstances change. Issues emerge out of nowhere, like gasoline prices comparable to college tuition payments or war-hawk talk of bombing Iran's nuclear program. Over the weekend, Santorum prophesied, "That may become the issue of the day come this fall—a nuclear Iran." In self-serving fashion, Santorum went on to argue, "We're not electing a C.E.O. We're electing a commander in chief."
Read More »
