Handicapping a second act for Michael Steele at the RNC

Can Michael Steele win a second term as chairman of the Republican National Committee?

That's what many Republicans are wondering a day after the embattled RNC chair surprised critics and declared his intention to seek re-election after a fairly rocky first term. For months, key Republican powerbrokers have been complaining about Steele's performance. Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour -- a former RNC head who now chairs the Republican Governors' Association -- has accused Steele of falling down on the job when it come to fundraising.

But on Tuesday, Barbour and other Steele critics have been noticeably silent about the RNC chairman's decision to seek another term. Ditto for many in the GOP's field of possible 2012 presidential contenders, including Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin, all of whom would no doubt be influential should they weigh in on who should lead the party during the upcoming campaign.

As we reported Monday, Steele faces an increasingly crowded RNC chair race, but that could actually end up working in his favor, if the votes of committee members are split among a wide enough field of rivals.

Ultimately, the decision on who will chair the party during the 2012 election comes down to the 185 Republican National Committee members, all drawn from key Republican outposts across the country — and far-flung places like Guam, where Steele has worked hard in recent months to maintain allies among local GOP leaders.

Several Republicans who are watching the race closely tell The Ticket that Steele has the support of anywhere between 30 and 40 RNC voting members at the moment. It sounds like a small number, given that the winner ultimately needs 85 votes. The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza, for one, thinks Steele is probably a goner.

But if you consider that the RNC election is currently a six-way race, 30 to 40 votes is a sizable chunk of support. Unless another candidate becomes the clear front-runner, Steele's base could be enough to help him make it through what could be several rounds of voting. The major challenge for Steele is to position himself as the second choice for RNC members who are considering voting for one of his many rivals. That goal could be difficult, but not impossible, considering how much time Steele has put into wooing GOP officials outside Washington.

So maybe the question for Steele's would-be successors shouldn't be whether the embattled incumbent can win, but how they intend to go about stopping him.

On Monday night, reaction to Steele's re-election bid among his RNC rivals was largely muted. Former Michigan GOP Chairman Saul Anuzis told National Review that Steele's decision "clarifies the race." Former RNC Co-Chair Ann Wagner said in a statement emailed to reporters that she welcomed Steele to the race. But she also called on the RNC to "freeze" any appointments, contracts, spending and hiring — a hint that she believes Steele, like any incumbent, might use the perks of his office to win votes.

That's not to say all of Steele's critics were silent. Jim Bopp, a leading conservative RNC member from Indiana, accused Steele of playing the race card to win votes for a second term. On the call, Steele told members "who you elect to be the next chairman will speak volumes about our willingness to be the party of Lincoln." In response, Bopp told the Washington Times that Steele was trying to take down the RNC. "He will smear the RNC by saying we are all racist by not voting for him," Bopp said.

Meanwhile, Politico's Mike Allen hears that GOP donors have put out word that they will continue to boycott the RNC if Steele wins, putting pressure on his challengers to perhaps consolidate their efforts to bring him down.

One thing is clear: Steele won't go away quietly -- or as easily as some GOP insiders had hoped and expected. If Monday night's conference call was any indication, Steele, who has always been a bit unpredictable, probably has a few more tricks up his sleeve than his critics expected.

(Photo of Steele: Matt Stroshane/Getty Images)