More good news for Republicans in New York special election

In the days leading up to Tuesday's election to choose New York Rep. Anthony Weiner's successor, two new independent polls show Republicans are poised to overtake the traditionally Democratic Brooklyn-Queens area district. Republicans have not held the seat since 1923.

Now, however, Republican candidate Bob Turner leads Democrat David Weprin 47 to 41 percent in a Sept. 8-11 poll (pdf) of likely special election voters conducted by Public Policy Polling (PPP). Four percent of remaining voters surveyed said they will cast a ballot for Socialist Workers candidate Christopher Hoeppner and an additional 7 percent remain undecided.

According to PPP, Turner's advantage is due to independent voter support but also sizeable crossover support from Democrats--the survey shows him picking up 29 percent of the Democratic vote. That split leaves Weprin with less than 60 percent support among Democratic voters.

The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percent.

The survey follows an independent poll from the Siena Research Institute (pdf) released Friday that showed Turner leading Weprin 50 to 44 percent among active registered voters. The margin of error for that survey was 3.3 percentage points.

The two polls offer the latest bad news for Democrats on the eve of the Sept. 13 race in a district their party would easily hold on to under normal circumstances.

Democrats entered this race amid challenges. The party was unable to fully count on its typical voter registration advantage in the 9th district, thanks to the Twitter scandal that prompted the district's former representative, Anthony Weiner, to resign.

Since then, Weprin has suffered campaign stumbles, including flubbing a question on the national debt, and skipping a debate with Turner during Hurricane Irene--and the Republican seized on both mis-steps in attack ads. Turner has suffered his own challenges-- including being attacked for politicizing Sept. 11--but this weekend's polls suggests he's only continuing to marshal support on the even of the balloting.

National party committees and politicians have inserted themselves into this race since it holds symbolic meaning for both. For Republicans, a win would not only mean the takeover of a Democratic-held seat; it would also allow party leaders to hail Turner's victory as a referendum on Barack Obama--a tactic they would then seek to apply in upcoming 2012 races.

Turner, who has cast himself as the anti-Obama candidate, boasts support from former mayor Rudy Giuliani, businessman Donald Trump as well as former Mayor Ed Koch--a Democrat who is protesting the Obama administration's handling of Israel's interests in the Middle East.

Weprin, who has been campaigning to protect Social Security and Medicare, on Monday announced support from former President Bill Clinton and Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who have each recorded robo-calls for the candidate.

Turnout is entirely unpredictable for a special election, and Democrats are hoping that the momentum can swing their way in the face of this weekend's negative surveys. Voters head to the polls in the 9th district on Tuesday, Sept. 13.