Pivotal fundraising deadline looms for 2012 candidates

Tonight at midnight marks a key deadline in the 2012 race for the presidency: the conclusion of second quarter campaign fundraising.

It's the first time the public will get a glimpse of how well--or not--President Obama and many of his 2012 rivals are doing financially in what many have called the "invisible primary" of the race.

While money isn't everything in a campaign and doesn't always predict who will win, the end of the quarter tends to offer key clues about which candidates have momentum in the race--and which ones are struggling to compete.

In the run-up to today's deadline, most 2012 hopefuls have been focused more on cash than votes. Obama, Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman have crisscrossed the country in recent weeks to raise cash for their 2012 efforts, while rivals like Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty have sent out multiple online appeals for cash to their supporters.

Technically, candidates have until July 15 to file their disclosures with the Federal Election Commission, but some campaigns will likely leak out their initial fund-raising numbers as early as Friday in hopes of getting positive press. On the other hand, if the numbers aren't so great, some candidates will either release their numbers over the holiday weekend, in hopes of burying the bad news when people aren't paying attention, or keep the bad press under wraps until mid-July.

There have been hints in recent weeks about how the candidates are doing. Here's a round-up of second-quarter expectations:

Barack Obama: Obama aides have said the president plans to raise at least $750 million for his re-election bid next year, and there are signs the campaign wants to post a big number on its first FEC report. Earlier this month, Obama aides told donors they were aiming to raise $60 million in June alone for the 2012 re-elect and the Democratic National Committee. A big question is how much of that cash will go into the actual Obama coffers. But another key unknown is how well Obama is doing with small dollar donors who were considered the backbone of his campaign four years ago. Since declaring his bid for a second term, Obama has been largely focused on bringing in the big checks, but this week, his campaign has sent out several e-mail appeals to donors looking for contributions as small as $5. "We measure our success not in dollars but in people," Obama wrote in one solicitation. Obama had raised nearly $60 million for his own campaign at this point four years ago. Will he beat his own record?

Mitt Romney: In April, the former Massachusetts governor told donors he'd set an early fundraising goal of $50 million--though the campaign later insisted he meant that total to reflect the entire GOP primary, not just the second quarter. In recent weeks, however, Romney has touted big numbers--including $10.3 million raised at a single Las Vegas fundraiser alone. Unnamed Romney donors and aides told reporters in recent weeks the ex-governor would raise close to $40 million by June 30. But as the deadline approaches, a Romney adviser, who declined to be named, tells The Ticket those numbers were all "pie in the sky" totals floated by people not in the know and that Romney will likely raise roughly $20 million by tonight. That's less than the $23 million Romney raised by this point during his White House bid four years ago. Is this last-minute pushback on rumored numbers an attempt by the campaign to lower expectations? We'll soon know.

Tim Pawlenty: Perhaps no one faces more pressure in this fund-raising quarter than the former Minnesota governor. Pawlenty has been struggling for weeks to be considered a top-tier contender and alternative to Romney, but he's failed to gain momentum in the polls. In May, Pawlenty raised roughly $800,000 at a campaign kick-off fundraiser--and had raised roughly that same amount in a cash swing in the days before that, according to his aides. But last week, word broke that Pawlenty isn't paying many of his senior advisers--prompting rumors of cash problems. On Wednesday, Pawlenty aides leaked out word that they have budgeted $1.75 million to spend at the upcoming Iowa Straw Poll, but it's unclear if that budget is based on cash they have now or money they hope to have later. Pawlenty has always said he won't raise as much cash at Romney, but the bigger question is whether he'll raise more money than longshot rivals like Ron Paul and Herman Cain. If he doesn't, that could be very bad news for his candidacy.

Newt Gingrich: The former House speaker has long been a prolific fundraiser for his network of non-profits, but there's a difference between raising unlimited, largely undisclosed contributions and checks that are capped at $2,500 per person. Gingrich's campaign imploded earlier this month after top advisers complained he was lazy on the trail and in raising cash. An unnamed former aide told NBC News that Gingrich had raised less than $3 million. His campaign later insisted Gingrich has been a dedicated fundraiser and will be able to compete. But that was before his top fundraisers quit the campaign, amid reports Gingrich owes more than what he's raised. On Wednesday, the campaign posted a message on Twitter seeking cash, calling the end of the quarter a "critical early show of support." "Giving $10 now is like giving $100 in January," the message said.

Michele Bachmann: The Minnesota congresswoman has two advantages in the quarter. One, Bachmann has more than $2.8 million in her congressional fund-raising account that she can transfer to her 2012 bid. Two, she has a proven record of being able to raise lots of cash in small dollar donations—which could boost her early fund-raising total. But a big unknown is whether Bachmann has been as successful at wooing big dollar donations. Her young candidacy means it's unlikely her first 2012 report will answer that question.

Jon Huntsman: Having joined the 2012 race less than two weeks ago, the former Utah governor isn't required to file a financial report until October 15. But he might opt in, if his numbers are good. Last week, Huntsman raised $1.2 million at a single New York City fundraiser, and he's attended at least 20 other finance events in recent days. Like Pawlenty, he's competing to be an alternative to Romney, and a good fund-raising number could help that cause and boost his low poll numbers.

Ron Paul: The Texas congressman has been amassing big cash through so-called "money bombs" on this site for weeks. Last month, Paul raised more than $1 million on his site in 24 hours. This week, he's more than halfway toward a $5 million goal ahead of tonight's deadline. One sign Paul is in good financial shape: He put up $31,000--more than any other 2012 hopeful--for a prime location at the Iowa Straw Poll.

Rick Santorum: The former Pennsylvania senator raised more than $30 million for his unsuccessful 2006 re-election bid, but while he still has the use of that mailing list of donors, it's unclear if he's been able to secure any significant campaign support. Few details have leaked about his 2012 fund-raising, though in recent days his campaign has sent many appeals to its e-mail list in hopes of securing dollars. The end of the quarter could make or break Santorum's bid to be considered a serious candidate.

Herman Cain: The former Godfather's Pizza CEO is the only candidate who has been open about how much cash he's raised in the run-up to tonight's second quarter deadline. In an interview with Politico, Cain says his report will show less than $5 million raised.

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