Why you should care about tonight’s Wisconsin recall election

State legislative elections rarely attract national attention. But tonight, union leaders, tea party supporters and 2012 political observers may outnumber the Wisconsinites who are watching to see whether Republicans lose control of the their state senate.

Voters in Wisconsin today will decide whether six Republican state senators are recalled from office. If Democrats win at least three of those elections, they will capture a majority in the state Senate (provided they hold Democratic seats after another slate of recall elections next week). A Democratic victory would be interpreted as a rejection of Republican Gov. Scott Walker's successful push to strip most government employees of their collective bargaining rights.

Around $30 million is being spent on today's recall elections, according to the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, a nonpartisan campaign finance watchdog group. Of that total, about $5 million has been spent by the candidates, compared to $25 million by outside groups.

The Wisconsin Democratic party casts today's election as an opportunity to "Take Back Wisconsin," their slogan for the party's get-out-the-vote effort.

"In size and scope and consequence, the recall movement will represent a historic correction to Republican overreach," Democratic Party chairman Mike Tate wrote in a memo to reporters this week.

Democratic control of the state Senate would give the party greater power to oppose Walker's agenda. It might also be a significant first step toward a potential push in 2012 by Democrats to recall Walker himself (the state's laws do not permit recall elections for lawmakers who have served less than one year).

Conservative and tea party groups are rallying in support of the Republicans, who have become symbols of Walker's fiscally conservative and anti-union policies. MoveOn.org is one of the many liberal groups supporting the unions against what they view as an assault on "working families."

Although many will try to spin tonight's results as a harbinger of the country's coming presidential-election season, it is difficult to interpret any local election as part of a national pattern. The results can best be viewed as a signal of whether the national outside groups are politically effective, and as a preview of how the parties might approach Wisconsin voters during the 2012 race.

President Obama carried Wisconsin in 2008 by 14 percentage points over John McCain.