Crist gains in Florida’s Senate race, but Rubio still leads

Is Charlie Crist surging in Florida's Senate race?

A Quinnipiac poll out Thursday morning finds the governor still trailing Republican Marco Rubio in the closely watched Senate contest, but the margin is much smaller than other polls have shown in recent days.

According to the survey, Rubio leads Crist by 7 points among likely voters, 42 percent to 35 percent. Democrat Kendrick Meek is in a very distant third place with 15 percent.

That's a significant difference from polls over the last week, which found Rubio leading by as much as 14 points.

Why is Crist suddenly gaining? For one thing, the governor has picked up some steam among Democrats—a voting bloc he needs to win outright if he stands a chance of succeeding over Rubio. According to Quinnipiac, Crist now leads Meek among Dems, 51 percent to 36 percent—results that were reversed two weeks ago. Crist has made a big sell to Democrats in the final days of the campaign, arguing that a vote for Meek is essentially a vote for Rubio.

But to win, Crist also needs to secure independents, and there are signs he hasn't quite done that. According to Quinnipiac, he leads Rubio among independent voters, 43 percent to 38 percent. That marks a slight boost for Crist--but it also represents a 6-point gain for Rubio in the last two weeks, according to Quinnipiac.

In his final TV ad of the campaign, Crist takes dead aim at independents and Democrats, arguing that voters face a stark choice on Election Day.

"Down one road is extremism, where Roe v. Wade is overturned and being a moderate is a curse. That's the road that Sarah Palin, the tea party and Marco Rubio want to take us down," Crist tells the camera. (Crist once endorsed Palin.) "It's a dangerous road, and the polls say I'm the only one who can stop them."

You can watch the ad here:

(Photo of Charlie Crist and his wife, Carole: Alan Diaz/AP)