Democrats gain lead in generic 2010 ballot

A new poll finds Democrats have gained a slight lead when it comes to which party voters prefer this fall. Gallup’s generic congressional ballot finds that 49 percent of likely voters say they prefer a Democratic candidate in November, compared with 43 percent who say they will vote Republican. The numbers are reversed from last month, when Republican were talking up their biggest lead ever recorded on the generic ballot question.

Does this mean Democrats are turning things around? Not necessarily.

While we’ve written that the elections probably won’t be as bad for Democrats are people are predicting, this is just one poll out of many. Other polls have indicated a significant GOP edge heading into November. Still, part of the GOP’s slip is linked to the fact that Republicans are losing independents — a voting bloc that may determine which party will ultimately control Congress. According to Gallup, the GOP held a 14-point lead among indy voters two weeks ago. That’s down to just 4 points.

Still, neither side should get too worked up over the poll. The generic ballot is helpful in offering, yes, generic hints about voter sentiment ahead of an election. But ultimately, it’s more useful to look at polls in individual races, which are a better guide to how good or bad an election is going.