Dems face a tougher-than-expected fight in California

With the state in a budget crisis and Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger one of the most unpopular politicians in the country, California would seem to be friendly territory for Democrats in 2010 -- especially when you consider that the party has a significant edge in state voter registration.

But California's two leading Democratic candidates — Sen. Barbara Boxer and gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown — are at serious risk of losing their races, as a new poll finds them in a dead heat with their GOP opponents heading into November. One reason: Female voters, who used to be reliable Democratic supporters, are increasingly split between the two political parties.

A new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll finds Boxer narrowly leading former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, 48 percent to 44 percent, among registered voters — a gap that's within the margin of error, meaning the two are virtually tied. Among women, Boxer leads Fiorina by just 5 points, 48 percent to 43 percent. By comparison, Boxer won her last campaign with 65 percent of the female vote.

In the governor's race, former eBay chief Meg Whitman narrowly leads Brown, 48 percent to 46 percent — again, within the margin of error. Among women, Brown has a 1-point advantage, leading his GOP opponent 47 percent to 46 percent. Whitman has spent more than $100 million of her own cash on the campaign, with most of that money going into TV ads. Brown, on the other hand, has relied heavily on spending from labor unions, which have run ads attacking Whitman. He unveiled his first TV ad in the race only this week.

But it's not just female voters who could ultimately decide the races. In the Senate race, especially, it could also come down to which candidate wins over voters from the suburbs. Boxer and Brown hold a significant edge among voters in urban areas, while Fiorina and Whitman lead big time in the rural areas of the state. Meanwhile, in the suburbs, the vote is more closely divided. While Whitman has a double-digit lead over Brown among suburban voters, Fiorina leads Boxer by just 4 points — well within the margin of error.

(Photo of Boxer, left, and Fiorina: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)