Are Dems facing political apocalypse? Not exactly

To hear top Democrats tell it, the coming midterm elections could be disastrous for their party.

Over the weekend, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs bluntly admitted on NBC’s "Meet the Press" that Democrats could very likely lose control of the House. “There’s no doubt there are enough seats in play that could cause Republicans to gain control,” Gibbs said, in a statement that GOP operatives promptly picked up and publicized widely.

But Gibbs isn’t the only one lowering Democratic expectations this November. In an interview with MSNBC’s "Morning Joe," Democratic National Committee chairman Tim Kaine this morning echoed Gibbs’ prediction, admitting his party could lose at least 28 seats this fall — if not more. “In a tough climate, anything’s possible,” Kaine said.

All this doom and gloom talk is in stark contrast to what other Democrats have been saying about 2010. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her deputy, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, have repeatedly rejected claims the GOP will regain control of Congress. “I don't think there's much likelihood" of a GOP takeover in her chamber, Pelosi said Monday. And just last week, Vice President Joe Biden predicted a Democratic resurgence this fall. “Reports of our demise are premature,” Biden said. “We’re going to do a great deal better than anyone gives us credit for. I do not see this grand debacle.”

So why are Gibbs and Kaine talking down their party’s chances this November? On one hand, they are acknowledging the obvious: Democrats aren’t in great shape. But they are also articulating what appears to be the party’s latest political strategy: motivation through fear. By talking up the potential of a Republican-led Congress, Democrats are hoping to scare their party base — which has been generally ho-hum about this election — into action.

This strategy isn’t entirely new. For weeks, President Obama and Democrats have been trashing John Boehner, the Republican in line to succeed Pelosi, implicitly warning voters of what could happen if the GOP retakes control of the House. The only problem: A Gallup poll finds about a third of the country has no idea who Boehner is, and the Republicans who might inspire Democratic voters to turn out in big numbers — Sarah Palin and George W. Bush — aren’t on the ballot.

[Obama hits new low in poll]

The president hasn’t — and likely won’t — endorse the implicit scenario behind these fear-based appeals, which holds that the Democrats are on track to lose this November. But by having one of the president's senior aides as well as the leader of the party out there warning of a political apocalypse, Democrats hope to marshal the voters who helped Obama win the White House into heading to the polls this fall.

On paper, the numbers don’t lie: Political strategist Charlie Cook ranks 64 Democrat-held seats as “lean or toss-up” compared with just seven Republican seats, indicating the GOP has a real shot at big gains this fall. But what most Democrats don’t mention is that the outlook for their party is a little more complex than a cursory view of the numbers suggests.

No doubt polls show big problems for Democrats heading into November: GOP voters are way more excited about the midterms than Democrats, typically a sign of who will turn out to vote and who won’t. Independent and swing voters are leaning toward Republicans. And polls show a definite anti-incumbent tide. A new Washington Post/ABC News poll out today finds six in 10 likely voters want someone new in office — a bad sign for the Democratic majority.

But while Republicans are benefiting from this anti-Democratic tide, polls find voters are just as dissatisfied with the GOP as they are with the Democrats — in some cases, even more so. A striking number in the Post/ABC poll today finds 73 percent of likely voters have little to no confidence in Republicans to make “the right decisions” for the country. That’s higher than the no-confidence vote for Obama (57 percent) and Democrats (67 percent).

For months, approval ratings for the GOP have been lower than for Democrats. The most recent Pew Research Center poll found 55 percent of likely voters disapprove of the job Republicans are doing in Congress, while 53 percent disapprove of Dems. In other game-changing elections — including the 1994 election when the GOP retook control of Congress — the party who ultimately won a majority of seats had a significantly higher approval rating than the rival party. With no major policy platform, like 1994’s Contract with America, it’s hard to see how the GOP significantly reverses that trend. The low policy profile of the party could emerge as a significant wild card heading into November.

Last week, Democrats played the fear card on money, warning that Republicans could potentially outspend Dems by tens of millions of dollars this fall. But in truth, Democrats are on better financial footing than Republicans — especially in the House. According to their latest Federal Election Commission reports, House Democrats have more than $28 million cash on hand — double what the Republicans have.

Will talking up the worst and hoping for the best work for Democrats? It didn’t work for Republicans back in 2006, when they tried to hang on to control of Congress by warning of the evils of a House led by Pelosi. Instead Republicans’ efforts had an inverse effect: Rather than stirring up their own base, they motivated the other side even more — and that’s the potential danger for Democrats this year, too.

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