Judiciary panel approves Kagan; will the GOP filibuster?

In a vote that generated little drama, the Senate Judiciary Committee voted 13-6 to approve Elena Kagan’s nomination to the Supreme Court. Sen. Lindsey Graham was the lone Republican to vote in favor of her nomination — a sign of support that had been suspected for weeks.

Kagan’s nomination now moves to the full Senate, which could potentially take up her nomination before lawmakers adjourn for recess Aug. 9. The big questions are whether the GOP will attempt to filibuster her nomination, as several Republicans have threatened, and if they do, whether it will be anything other than symbolic.

It’s not clear the Senate GOP views Kagan as a fight worth fighting. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has been cagey when asked if the GOP will pursue a filibuster. While he has not ruled it out, McConnell has repeatedly admitted a filibuster is “unlikely.”

This is where it gets tricky for Republicans: Pro-life activists have been picketing McConnell’s office, urging the GOP to block Kagan’s nomination. As Sessions and other Republicans have argued, activists have tried to portray Kagan as a liberal who has more experience as a political operative than as a legal mind. They have suggested she won't be able to separate her political views from her duty to be an impartial member of the court. It’s an argument that has stirred up parts of the conservative base — a bloc that the GOP desperately needs to turn out this November if the party is to gain seats in Congress.

But Democrats have argued that Kagan would be a politically-neutral counterbalance to what they view as an increasingly activist conservative Supreme Court. It's an image Kagan herself has sought to build up, using words like "modest" and "restraint" to describe how she would operate, if ultimately confirmed.

With Democrats seemingly united on Kagan, all they need is one GOP vote to block a filibuster. With Graham, it seems they already have it. And he’s not the only Republican who might support Kagan. She seems likely to win the support of moderate Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins from Maine. Massachusetts Republican Scott Brown, who introduced Kagan before the Senate Judiciary Committee, might also support her bid, though he still hasn’t said. Indiana Sen. Dick Lugar, a close ally of Obama, might also be a yes vote, as he supported Kagan’s bid for solicitor general last year.

What that means is that if the GOP embarks on a filibuster, it might ultimately be only a symbolic vote, a move that wouldn't prove to be any real threat to Kagan's bid to join the court.