The Upshot

More dismal poll numbers for Dems, but GOP incumbents could be in trouble too

Holly Bailey
The Upshot

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harryreid

If Democrats thought the 1994 election was bad, the party had better brace itself for November.

A new USA Today/Gallup poll finds voters even more dissatisfied with the state of the country than they were in '94 and 2006, two so-called "change" elections where the party in power lost majority control of Congress.

Echoing a trend we've seen all summer, the poll finds some exceptionally dismal numbers for Democrats: 49 percent of voters say they plan to vote for a Republican this fall, compared with just 43 percent who plan to support Dems. Two-thirds of Republicans say they are "extremely motivated" to vote in the election, compared with less than half of Democrats.

But while Republicans are better positioned, GOP incumbents shouldn't be waving the victory flag just yet. The poll finds that voter discontent stems less from formal party affiliation than from anger at current officeholders.

[Fall elections: A Democratic 'bloodbath'?]

A whopping 75 percent of those polled say Congress would be "better" with new members.

[Republicans are going to take over House, political guru says]

Among voters who say they'll vote GOP this fall, nearly half say they are motivated by a desire to beat Democrats, but by a 2-1 margin, they would rather vote for someone new than a current GOP member of Congress.

(Photo of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid: Susan Walsh/AP)

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