Why is Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski in trouble?

A candidate who possesses significant advantages in money, name recognition and experience usually can expect to lead an election campaign. So what happened to Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski on Tuesday night?

Murkowski is trailing her little-known and underfunded challenger, Joe Miller, in the race for Alaska's GOP Senate nomination, though the official results won't be known until sometime next month. Theories abound as to why Murkowski is locked in this surprisingly close race, but if you ask Miller himself, he'll say it has everything to do with anti-Washington sentiment.

"We see just a complete breakdown of common sense in D.C. right now," Miller told CNN on Wednesday morning. "We consider it a crisis of leadership, and absolutely, common-sense Americans, common-sense Alaskans, they recognize we've got to change out the people in D.C. to change D.C."

Murkowski presented an inviting target for a candidate touting an anti-Washington and anti-establishment message. Her family political dynasty has made its share of enemies in Alaska over the years. In 2006, Sarah Palin tapped into similar outsider campaign themes — and "common sense" rhetoric — to oust Murkowski's father, then-Gov. Frank Murkowski, from the Republican gubernatorial primary. He was tainted with a number of corruption-in-office scandals — indeed, his appointment of daughter Lisa to his vacant Senate seat in 2004, after he was elected governor, reinforced an image of cronyism and nepotism for the elder Murkowski .

[How big a role did Palin play in Alaska shocker?]

Of course, Palin herself loomed large in Miller's Senate challenge — and Miller readily acknowledges the role of Palin's endorsement in galvanizing primary support behind him.

"I'm absolutely certain that was pivotal," Miller said of Palin's endorsement in an interview with the Anchorage Daily News. In other interviews, Miller has credited the endorsement of Palin — who has gone on to serve as an informal tea party kingmaker since resigning the Alaska governorship last year — as the reason his campaign was able to gain increased national attention.

Though both Murkowski and Palin contend there's no personal feud fueling Palin's support for Miller, Murkowski admitted Tuesday that things were starting to get personal. Murkowski, in an interview with the Daily Beast's Shushannah Walshe, addressed a recent fundraising pitch made by Palin to donate "$1,000 for each of the 30 years this Senate seat has been locked in by the Murkowski family."

Murkowski responded: "The tone was directed against me rather than reasons why you should support Joe." She later added, "all of a sudden it became a little more personal."

Palin's husband, Todd, who also endorsed Miller, is a longtime friend of the candidate. Miller received an endorsement from former presidential candidate Mike Huckabee as well as support from prominent conservative media figures such as radio host Laura Ingraham.

But the marshaling of conservative support might not have proved so effective were it not also for Murkowski's vulnerability on ideological grounds. Alaska is a famously conservative state, but Murkowski has a moderate voting record, leaving plenty of room for Miller to make attacks from the right. Tuesday's ballot in Alaska also featured a measure to require parental notice before minors can have abortions. That initiative may have drawn conservatives to the polls Tuesday, a significant get-out-the-vote advantage for Miller, who is well to the right of Murkowski on social issues such as abortion rights.

Because of Alaska's overall conservative profile, Miller — unlike tea party hopefuls in other states — risks very little in the general election campaign, in which either GOP candidate would be a heavy favorite against the Democratic nominee, Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams.

(Murkowski photo: AP/Mark Thiessen; Miller photo: AP/Michael Dinneen)

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