Bull of the Day: Southwest Airlines (LUV)

2015 has been a very interesting year for airline stocks like Southwest Airlines (LUV). Extremely low oil prices made investors bullish about the space for much of the year, but then concerns over the economy and competition sank the space for much of the summer.

Overall, LUV is up about 11% YTD which is thoroughly crushing the S&P 500 over the same time frame, though most of this is thanks to the sudden surge over the past three months. LUV is actually up about 25% in just that time frame, pretty much saving the year for the stock.

But with such a big surge as of late, investors have to be asking, can this trend continue into 2016? If we look to recent earnings estimate revisions as a guide, then the answer to the question above may be ‘yes’.

Recent Earnings Estimates

With oil prices staying in a trend below $50 (and just breaching the $40 mark) this is fantastic news for the airline industry. Fuel is obviously one of their main input costs and less spending here leaves more for the bottom line.

And in Southwest Airlines’ case, these savings can be used to fuel an aggressive expansion campaign including the company’s first foray into international markets. From their new hub at Houston’s Hobby Airport—in addition to flights at several of the airline’s other major focus cities—LUV has begun to fly people across the Caribbean and beyond including to popular resort destinations like Cancun and Aruba, and more business-focused cities like Mexico City too. New routes means more profits which is more reason to be bullish on LUV right now.

These factors have given analysts no choice but to raise their earnings estimates for LUV stock pushing the consensus estimate higher for both the current year and next year time frame. In fact, for both of those time periods, not a single estimate was lowered suggesting that analysts have complete confidence in LUV to grow earnings.

And before you worry about LUV and its ability to beat lofty earnings expectations, consider that over the past four quarters it has beaten estimates each time including an average of 3.6% over the past four quarters. In fact, LUV hasn’t missed expectations since July of 2013, making it a compelling choice for earnings-focused investors.

Bottom Line

Thanks to the factors above, LUV has earned itself a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and we are looking for a run of outperformance heading into 2016 as well. The company is expected to see incredible EPS growth for the year and its forward PE is still an absurdly low 13.2.

If that wasn’t enough, consider that LUV’s airline industry currently has an industry rank in the top 35% too, so there are plenty of tailwinds at the company’s back too. So, for an impressive choice heading into 2016 definitely consider Southwest Airlines as it is well-positioned for continued and profitable growth heading into the New Year.

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Author is long LUV.


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