Christie Faces Decisions on Lautenberg Seat; MA GOP Spots Gomez $400K for Ads; Gallup Unveils Fixes

National Journal

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WHAT'S NEWS

  • MO-08 Special: Voters are voting in the special election between state House Speaker Pro Tem Jason Smith (R) and state Rep. Steven Hodges (D). Polls are open until 8 pm EDT/7 pm CDT (Hotline reporting).

  • MA SEN special: Rep. Edward Markey (D) "is expected to release a new ad" on Tuesday "in advance of the first debate between the candidates," scheduled for Wednesday. Meanwhile, ex-Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez (R) "is ramping up ad buys as well," with the state GOP "kicking in" $396K for new ads in the Springfield and Boston markets (Boston Herald).

  • NJ GOV '13: Gov. Chris Christie (R) and state Sen. Barbara Buono (D) "face only token opposition in their respective primaries on Tuesday," but both camps "hope their victory-night celebrations will infuse their campaigns with excitement that has been lacking" (AP).

  • VA GOV '13: Ex-DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe (D) "held nearly a 2-to-1 edge in campaign cash on hand at the end of May" over AG Ken Cuccinelli (R), with $5.4M CoH, to $2.7M for Cuccinelli (AP). Michelle Obama will attend a Tysons Corner fundraiser for McAuliffe on Thursday (Washington Post).

  • NJ SEN: Sen. Frank Lautenberg's (D) death Monday presents Christie "with a series of decisions that carry consequences beyond" who will serve in an interim basis, including whether to hold a special election prior to the end of Lautenberg's term in '14 (AP). Dems threatened to take Christie to court if he forgoes holding a special election this year (Newark Star-Ledger).

  • SD SEN: U.S. Atty Brendan Johnson (D) "still has not said publicly whether he will or won't run" for the seat currently held by his father, Sen. Tim Johnson (D). But the younger Johnson "confirmed he spoke to" '96 SD-AL nominee/'02 SD-AL candidate Rick Weiland (D) "about his political plans, and didn't dispute Weiland's public comments that Johnson would not run" (Sioux Falls Argus Leader).

  • IL-13: Ex-Miss America Erika Harold (R) "is expected to announce Tuesday that she's running" in a primary against Rep. Rodney Davis (R) (Quad City Times).

  • MN-06: '12 GOV nominee Tom Emmer (R), a "likely" candidate, "plans an evening event in his hometown of Delano" on Wednesday "for what he calls an 'announcement' on the race (Minneapolis Star Tribune).

  • WV-02: State Del. Eric Nelson (R), who was "the favorite" of "top" GOPers and "had the potential to clear the GOP field," will not run for the seat being vacated by Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) (Roll Call). Ex-MD GOP Chair Alex Mooney (R) "announced on Monday that he will venture across state lines to run" (Roll Call).

  • IL GOV: Ex-WH CoS William Daley (D) "says he is 'stunned' the state failed to address the pension crisis in the spring session and indicated the legislative meltdown is moving him closer to announcing a decision on whether to challenge" Gov. Pat Quinn (D) in the Dem primary (Chicago Tribune).

  • NC: "Issues of race while drawing" current state legislative and cong. districts "will be front and center in a brief trial involving pending redistricting litigation" beginning Tuesday in Raleigh (AP).

OUR CALL

Hotline editors weigh in on the stories that drive the day


• The House GOP remains deeply divided, despite overt displays of comity and cohesion. The conservative rump faction that almost cost John Boehner his speakership is calm now, but a few more violations of the Hastert rule will rile them up. Immigration has claimed GOP careers before, and this year's effort to pass a bill could add to the body count.

• Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno sits at or near the top of Chris Christie's NJ SEN short list, especially if he decides to appoint a Republican who will try to hold onto the seat, rather than a Tom Kean-esque placeholder. But is accepting the interim appointment in Guadagno's best interest? Garden State Republicans have a much better record in gubernatorial contests than Senate races.

• Nick Preservati's decision to forgo the WV SEN race robs the DSCC of a candidate, but he wasn't their only option. State Dems were always skeptical that he could overcome low name recognition; Sec/State Natalie Tennant and state Supreme Court Justice Robin Davis are still at the top of their wish lists. Should those two pass (Tennant has a young child, the same reason Carte Goodwin gave for passing on the race, and Davis just started a new 12-year term), then Dems can write off the seat.

• Forget about Arkansas: The next front in the outside money battle over guns is coming in Colorado Springs, where a NRA-backed recall of the state Senate president looks likely to head to the ballot. State Sen. John Morse (D) is already term-limited in 2014, but opponents of Colorado's new gun control measures want to make an example of him, while Morse hopes to attract support from national groups like Mayors Against Illegal Guns.

• No matter what happens, Rep. Marc Veasey (D-TX) is making the right political move pushing for a new Latino congressional district in Dallas-Fort Worth. If it happens, his position in TX-33 gets more secure. If it doesn't work out, Veasey can still add his attempt to a growing list of Latino outreach efforts he's made since his election, including significant work on immigration reform, ahead of an expected 2014 primary rematch against Domingo Garcia.

HAIR OF THE DOG

FRESH BREWED BUZZ

  • "That model probably needs a full overhaul" -- Gallup editor-in-chief Frank Newport, on his firm's WH '12 likely-voter screening process. Gallup will unveil results of its WH '12 postmortem Tuesday morning ("Morning Joe").

  • "We've got to educate our members and we've got to help educate them about the hundreds of issues that are involved" -- Boehner, on trying to sell immigration legislation to rank-and-file GOPers (Washington Post).

  • Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY) "said Monday she will undergo medical care for a treatable form of lung cancer" but "but expects to return" to DC "after completing a treatment plan that will begin soon at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center" in NYC (New York Daily News).

  • Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) "recently received difficult news that the unborn baby she's carrying has an often-fatal condition affecting its kidneys and lungs," she announced on Monday (Vancouver Columbian).

  • "Sun Tzu once said, 'Be extremely subtle, even to the point of formlessness. Be extremely mysterious, even to the point of soundlessness.' I think that's a good campaign strategy as far as specifics on our strategy to win" -- NRSC comm. dir. Brad Dayspring, declining to reveal the cmte's plans in the MA SEN special (Politico).

  • Ex-WA AG Rob McKenna (R), who was his party's '12 GOV nominee, said Monday "he will not try again to run" for GOV, but he "left the door open for other elective office" (KVI-AM).

  • "I'm not unhappy about it, but I think I would have made a very big difference for him, as I did in the primaries" -- Donald Trump, who says ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's (R) WH '12 camp didn't call him back after Romney won the GOP nod, "a victory for which Trump takes partial credit" (National Review).

  • "The organizers of an effort to recall" CO state Senate Pres. John Morse (D) "turned in Monday more than twice the number of signatures required to force a special election, possibly setting the stage for an expensive ... battle over gun control" (Denver Post).

  • "We haven't seen the governor's proposal yet, but we do know that it's either an extreme measure to expand late-term abortion or an unnecessary and purely political maneuver" -- NY state Senate GOP spokesperson Kelly Cummings, on Gov. Andrew Cuomo's (D) "new 'Women's Equality Agenda,'" which will include a plank on abortion rights (New York Daily News).

  • Ex-Rep. Brad Miller (D-NC) will join the DC-based Center for American Progress "as a senior fellow for economic policy" (Raleigh News & Observer).

  • "I'll do anything for him, whether it's hosting this show or disposing of a body. I guess I was just happy it was the first of those two choices, and I wasn't taking a trip to the East River under the cover of darkness" -- Interim "Daily Show" host John Oliver, who begins subbing for Jon Stewart on June 10 (New York Times).

SWIZZLE CHALLENGE

  • 15 Naval aviators or Navy SEALs currently serve in Congress.

  • That one (understandably) stumped the Wake Up Call! community, so here's a bonus question: "Lautenberg's death might make him the last WWII vet to serve in the Senate. Who was the last WWI vet to be a member of the upper chamber?" The 2nd correct e-mailer gets to submit the next question.

NJ'S EARLY BIRD SPECIALS

SHOT...

"We think Romney may have been up at times, even if the smoothed-over polls from the Obama campaign never had him up" -- Newport, still defending Gallup's WH '12 polls ("Morning Joe").

...CHASER

"Obama's Data Team Totally Schooled Gallup" -- (Bloomberg Businessweek).

Reid Wilson, Editor-in-Chief

Steven Shepard, Executive Editor