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    New Cloud Offering Could Help SAP Reach $64

    By Trefis Team | Forbes – Mon, Jul 11, 2011

    SAP‘s stock rose almost 4% following the launch of two new products by the company – Sales OnDemand, a cloud based CRM application for sales force automation with a social layer on top, and Sybase IQ 15.3, a relational database system used by many organizations around the world. [1] [2] SAP competes with heavyweights like Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL), Salesforce.com (NASDAQ: CRM) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) in the database and cloud computing business. CRM software accounts for almost 20% of the $64 Trefis price estimate for SAP.

    If SAP is able to increase its market share of the CRM software market to 24% by the end of the forecasting period, it could lead to an upside of about 5% to the current Trefis price estimate of $64 for SAP stock.

    Impact of Sales OnDemand Launch on SAP Stock

    SAP currently has a 21% share in the CRM market which is expected to decrease to 18% by the end of the forecasting period. Sales OnDemand will succeed the earlier CRM offering by SAP – CRM OnDemand. Considering the positive initial reviews, if the Sales OnDemand application turns out to be a hit, SAP could end up with a greater market share by the end of the forecasting period.

    [trefischart ticker=SAP width=350 driver=0159]

    Impact of Sybase 15.3 Launch on SAP Stock

    The launch of Sybase 15.3 could also have played a small part in the 4% price jump in SAP stock. Sybase 15.3 is a robust offering which offers many improvements and better performance than its predecessor. It comes with PlexQ, a concurrent grid framework and distributed query processing support which should improve database performance. It also offers an improved DBA interface and better integrates business analytics with the application workflow.

    Looking forward, SAP’s revenues from Sybase are expected to grow to $1.8 billion by the end of the forecasting period. However, the Sybase division accounts for only about 8% of the Trefis price estimate, so this launch may not have much of an impact on it.

    [trefischart ticker=SAP width=350 driver=0344]

    Notes:

    1. SAP Sales OnDemand Now Generally Available, PR News Wire, July 6, 2011 [↩]

    2. Sybase IQ 15.3 Launched, PR News Wire, July 6, 2011 [↩]

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