ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) — State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli said Thursday that New York has recovered less than half the jobs lost during the recession and a weakening Wall Street and global economy make for a gloomy outlook.
DiNapoli's report on economic trends finds an uneven recovery from the recession that's still hitting many areas hard three years later. And while New York's employment growth has been better than the national average for the past two years, the state has lost jobs faster than other states in recent months.
As for the near future, the comptroller is offering a cautious view. DiNapoli said Wall Street has resumed job cuts after weak earnings from September to December followed losses of $3 billion in the third quarter of 2011. That's critical to all New Yorkers. State government has traditionally depended on the financial sector for 20 percent of its revenue. And hard times on Wall Street have led to hard times for schools, other public services, and taxpayers.
Sharp increase in oil prices and the continuing European economic crisis could also put a big dent in New York's banking and tourism sectors. Those are critical areas for New York City's economy, which drives state revenue.
"The recovery is still a very tentative and tenuous one," DiNapoli said in an interview. "Although overall we've seen important barometers like job growth adjusting, it's uneven."
As for the future, DiNapoli said the factors are more of a snapshot, and not a predictor of the economy in four or five years.
"We're still in a very fragile time in terms of the overall state of our economy," he said.
In November, similar findings were reported by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York — part of the Federal Reserve committee created by Congress that sets interest rates and makes other monetary policy to help spur job growth.
New York Reserve President William C. Dudley said the state is recovering at a moderate pace following the end of the economic downturn in November of 2009. In a speech in Albany, Dudley also noticed what he called a "pause" in the recovery in September, and said "strong headwinds" are slowing a faster recovery.
Among DiNapoli's findings:
—New York regained 183,000 private sector jobs lost in the recession, and lost 29,300 public-sector jobs. Overall, New York recovered 46 percent of jobs lost in the recession.
—New York ranked 16th among the states in regaining jobs.
—Consumer confidence hasn't rebounded.
—New York City got back 52 percent of jobs lost in the recession.
—Job recovery was weaker in the metro suburbs. The lower Hudson Valley regained 14 percent, while Long Island lost a fraction of 1 percent.
—Manufacturing, the sector that a century ago helped bring New York to global prominence before falling into decline, is gaining strength.
—Personal debt declined during the recession and peaked at 2009, although it rose slightly in the third quarter of 2011. Personal debt was estimated at $49,700 per person in the third quarter, most of it in mortgages and student loan debt.
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