With Debates Done, Race Is Still Tight
Over the course of three presidential debates, Republican nominee Mitt Romney succeeded in defying Democratic attacks—and overcoming his own past missteps—that had threatened to disqualify him as a reasonable choice for voters weary of President Obama.
Portrayed for weeks as a warmonger, Romney in the debates showed stronger interest in diplomacy and using military action only as a last resort. He was fluent and gaffe-free.
Yet in Monday night's face-off on foreign policy, Obama was the more frequent and strident aggressor, racking up twice as many points as his opponent. After weeks of hammering Obama over his response to the terrorist attack in Libya that killed four Americans, Romney never threw a punch in that direction. What’s more, he found himself agreeing with the president and praising his record more than he probably would have liked.
So where does that leave the race? Probably looking more than ever like a coin toss with a smidge of advantage for the sitting president.
Momentum is far more important than television ads at this stage, but without a brutal knockdown or embarrassing misstep, the impact of the third debate is likely to fade as the election hinges on which campaign can get more of its supporters to the polls.
Widespread disappointment amid a sluggish economy remains Romney’s strongest weapon against the president. But it was not often at his disposal in a debate on foreign policy that allowed the president to highlight some of his biggest successes. Read more
—Beth Reinhard
NATIONAL JOURNAL’S PRESIDENTIAL RACE REPORT
Foreign-Policy Debate Was All About Ohio--and So Is the Campaign NEW!
[National Journal, 10/23/12] NJ’s Major Garrett writes that two topics that emerged in the final debate--trade with China and the auto bailout--will be fodder in the key battleground of Ohio. Obama advisers believe they have the advantage in the Buckeye State, which The New York Times's Nate Silver writes has a 50-50 chance of deciding the election.
Obama, Romney Pumped for Dash to the Finish NEW!
[AP, 10/23/12] In Florida today, Obama framed the choice between himself and Romney as one of “trust,” as his campaign released a pamphlet outlining his second-term agenda. Meanwhile, Romney and running mate Paul Ryan are in Nevada before heading to a rally with Kid Rock in Colorado.
Analysis: The Map NEW!
[EllisBlog, 10/23/12] John Ellis, George W. Bush’s cousin and a former Fox News voting data analyst, writes that Romney could win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College. His map calls Colorado, Virginia, and Florida for Romney, leaving Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, and New Hampshire as toss-ups.
Obama, Romney: No Major Differences in Foreign-Policy Debate
[National Journal, 10/23/12] In making a vague and restrained case for a stronger America that would steer clear of military involvement in hot spots like Iran and Syria, NJ’s Michael Hirsh writes that Romney rendered almost moot any serious differences he might have with Obama over foreign policy.
Horses, Bayonets, and Boredom: The Debate on Twitter
[USA Today, 10/23/12] “Zzzzz” was a theme in many tweets, as were declarations of abandoning the debate--which overall was the topic of 6.5 million tweets, fewer than those of the first two debates or the VP face-off--for the NFL game between the Detroit Lions and the Chicago Bears.
After Debate, Close Race Will Come Down to Turnout
[Tampa Bay Times, 10/23/12] The Times’ Adam C. Smith writes that with the debates now over and the trajectory of the race as murky as ever, to a large extent the election is out of the candidates’ hands. Barring a last-minute surprise, the final two weeks are about a feverish effort by both sides to mobilize supporters.
Romney Shifts to Center, Avoiding Hawkish Tone
[New York Times, 10/23/12] In a combative 90-minute debate, Romney avoided the more bellicose tone he often struck during the GOP primary. As in the last two debates, Romney shifted toward the middle, often agreeing with Obama on policy, even as the president tried to tie him to George W. Bush.
Romney Stumbles on Foreign Policy
[National Review, 10/23/12] Conservative Daniel Pipes writes that Romney missed several opportunities to score hits on Obama on Monday night, including on Libya, which came as a surprise to many on the right, among others. Meanwhile, Weekly Standard Editor William Kristol thinks Romney all but clinched it.
Opinion: Romney Says He’s Winning—It’s a Bluff NEW!
[New York Magazine, 10/23/12] Jonathan Chait argues that the Romney camp is carefully attempting to project an atmosphere of momentum, in the hopes of winning positive media coverage and, thus, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Factcheck.org: False Claims in the Final Debate
[FactCheck, 10/23/12] The editors at FactCheck.org write that the candidates took turns contradicting each other and twisting the facts during Monday night’s final debate. From Romney’s attack on Obama’s “apology” tour, to Obama’s claims on how many troops each man said should be left in Iraq, FactCheck has the analysis.
No Debate: Bob Schieffer Got It Just Right
[Politico, 10/23/12] Debate moderator Bob Schieffer disarmed the candidates with his unassuming charm and facilitated their conversation with calm confidence. Never once did the candidates disregard his efforts to keep time and move the conversation forward.
Romney and Iran’s ‘Route to the Sea’ NEW!
[Washington Post, 10/23/12] When Romney made the geographically odd assertion that Syria was “Iran’s route to the sea,” it wasn’t the first time. The Fact-Checker tries to get to the bottom of the matter.
Post-Debate Polls Show Obama Won
[National Journal, 10/23/12] Polls taken immediately after the third debate--from CNN/ORC and CBS News--show Obama came out victorious.
5 Takeaways: Obama Drives Debate, but Romney Clears Commander Bar
[National Journal, 10/23/12] Monday night’s final encounter between Obama and Romney followed the same predictable pattern as most foreign-policy debates. But NJ’s Ron Brownstein writes that an evening that was more seminar than slugfest did produce some takeaways.
Obama Lays Out Second Term Agenda in Booklet Ad
[National Journal, 10/23/12] After weeks of being challenged by Democrats and Republicans to lay out his second-term agenda, Obama's campaign is releasing a 20-page booklet called "Blueprint for America's Future" today.
